November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

Postby tireman4 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 3:51 pm

To start of November:

November Temperature and Precipitation Normals (1971-2000)
and Extremes for Houston (1889-2007)
(last updated 11/9/08)

-------------- TEMPERATURE ------------------- ----- PRECIPITATION -----
NORMAL RECORD LOW RECORD HIGH RECORD CUMULATIVE PCPN
MAX MIN MAX YEAR MAX MIN YEAR MIN PCPN DAILY YEARLY
---------------------------------------------- -------------------------
1 77 54 89 1978 53 1895 35 1993* 75 1961 6.25 1943 0.15 40.11
2 77 53 89 1978* 49 1951 34 1991 71 1946 4.58 1943 0.30 40.26
3 77 53 87 1992* 48 1991 30 1999 74 1994 3.09 1892 0.45 40.41
4 76 53 89 1988 52 1954 28 1991 76 1994 3.20 1902 0.60 40.56
5 75 53 88 1963 53 1995 31 1991 71 1922 5.22 1925 0.75 40.71

6 75 52 88 1963 50 1959 36 1993* 71 1989 1.67 1892 0.89 40.85
7 74 52 88 1969 53 1938 29 1993 72 1989 1.46 1991 1.03 40.99
8 74 52 89 1989* 52 1968 34 1991* 74 1986 1.47 1990* 1.17 41.13
9 74 52 88 1969 46 1955 29 1991 72 1946 3.08 1952 1.31 41.27
10 73 52 88 2006* 49 1950 30 1977 72 1995 2.85 1898 1.45 41.41

11 73 51 87 1978 45 1907 32 1977 74 1911 1.88 1935 1.59 41.55
12 73 51 85 2003* 44 1907 32 1987 73 1896 4.68 1998 1.73 41.69
13 72 50 86 2005* 42 1976 29 1907 75 1993 4.53 1961 1.87 41.83
14 72 50 89 1921 38 1920 28 1969 74 1985 1.40 1998 2.01 41.97
15 72 50 88 1978 46 1959 25 1969 74 1955 2.80 1956 2.15 42.11

16 72 50 85 1948 46 1976 25 1970 76 1958 3.03 1948 2.29 42.25
17 71 49 84 1985 42 1932 31 1997 75 1957 5.19 2003 2.43 42.39
18 71 49 84 1973 47 2000 28 1959 74 1985 3.36 1953 2.57 42.53
19 71 49 85 1985 47 1903 31 1903 70 1899 2.05 1995 2.71 42.67
20 70 49 84 1977 46 1937 27 1969 72 1900 1.85 1907 2.85 42.81

21 70 48 84 2007* 45 1972 29 1937 70 1909 1.54 1977 2.99 42.95
22 70 48 87 1973 39 1929 30 1975 72 1983 3.09 2004 3.13 43.09
23 70 48 85 1973 40 1957 24 1975 75 1973 3.81 1986 3.27 43.23
24 69 48 84 1910 45 1972 26 1970 69 1902 3.35 1940 3.41 43.37
25 69 47 86 1967 44 1996 29 1950 71 1985 1.70 1987 3.54 43.50

26 69 47 86 1967* 42 1980 27 1975 73 1990 3.17 1893 3.67 43.63
27 69 47 84 1989 46 1918 26 1975 73 1964 3.12 1962 3.80 43.76
28 68 46 83 1977 39 1976 26 1976 68 2006 1.82 2001 3.93 43.89
29 68 46 83 2006 40 1911 22 1976 70 2006 3.47 1981 4.06 44.02
30 68 46 82 1967 46 1955 19 1976 69 1991 1.41 1968 4.19 44.15

* indicates a record that has been tied in a previous year

November Normals
high: 72.0F
low: 49.8F
mean temperature: 60.9F
rainfall: 4.19"
heating DD: 181
cooling DD: 61

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:10 pm

November 1924 and 1952 came after a very dry October and were La Nina. November 1924 was dry, while 1952 was wet. It could be possible that this November could be wet. This Upper Texas Coast data.

Rain
Image
Correlation=0.003825

Temperature
Image
Correlation=0.17055

There is no correlation with October and November rainfall. However, there is a correlation with October and November temperature. The warmer the October, the warmer November will be.
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby svrwx0503 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:18 pm

Looking at some of the medium range progs, cooler weather will likely persist over the next couple of weeks. Models are indicating that a trough will develop east of the rockies and could become cutoff over the southeast US early next week. The 12z GFS is much further west with the placement of the low and has it moving into southeast Texas from the northeast by next wed/thur. This would likely mean cooler and possibly damp weather for the first week of November.
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby Mr. T » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:59 am

The calendar flips and so does the weather:

Image

We've got some cool, wet days ahead. Finally...
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:54 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:An end to
SUPER BORING MONTH LONG ENNUI ATTACK!!??!!??11!!??7!!!11???

CAP TOTALLY ERODES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING. A POSITIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
SETTLING DOWN OVER THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY`S
SUNRISE PLACES THE BEST DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE
CWA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO PUMP TO BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AHEAD
OF TUESDAY`S MID-LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEVELOPING MCS (OR A SQUALL LINE) WILL BE
DETERMINED UPON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LL SHEAR. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AHEAD OF A MAIN NORTH/CENTRAL TX QLCS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
0-3KM SRH...WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY INTAKE BELOW ESTABLISHED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SW`ERLIES...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LL VEERING WITH HGT TO
MAKE FOR A TERTIARY THREAT OF ROTATING CELLS. PROG SOUNDING STORM
PARAMETERS MORE STRONGLY SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND AND
RAIN BEING THE LEADING THREATS.


About time. Good riddance to that cockroach ridge! :twisted: :lol:
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby Andrew » Sun Oct 31, 2010 1:08 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:An end to
SUPER BORING MONTH LONG ENNUI ATTACK!!??!!??11!!??7!!!11???

CAP TOTALLY ERODES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING. A POSITIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
SETTLING DOWN OVER THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY`S
SUNRISE PLACES THE BEST DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE
CWA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO PUMP TO BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AHEAD
OF TUESDAY`S MID-LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEVELOPING MCS (OR A SQUALL LINE) WILL BE
DETERMINED UPON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LL SHEAR. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AHEAD OF A MAIN NORTH/CENTRAL TX QLCS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
0-3KM SRH...WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY INTAKE BELOW ESTABLISHED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SW`ERLIES...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LL VEERING WITH HGT TO
MAKE FOR A TERTIARY THREAT OF ROTATING CELLS. PROG SOUNDING STORM
PARAMETERS MORE STRONGLY SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND AND
RAIN BEING THE LEADING THREATS.


About time. Good riddance to that cockroach ridge! :twisted: :lol:


And Time for some fun :twisted:
.
.
.
hopefully

00z gfs backs off a lot :(

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_p24_l_loop.shtml

Rain is going to be very dependent on where low sets up shop:

Image
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Oct 31, 2010 7:31 am

Fingers crossed...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH & EAST TX/WRN LA...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DRT TO TXK.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT...850MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT...SUFFICIENT ASCENT
ATOP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND SCT-NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN A 5%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MANY UPDRAFTS COULD
ACTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURGING WIND SHIFT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID THE POSSIBILITY FOR NUMEROUS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.

..DARROW.. 10/31/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Oct 31, 2010 9:38 am

This may get interesting after all...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby svrwx0503 » Sun Oct 31, 2010 11:15 am

12z NAM/GFS model soundings continue to indicate an isolated severe risk across the region with decent a very decent CAPE profile and a good hail growth region, so I would suspect to see SPC go ahead and put out a slight risk for our region with hail and winds the main threats. There is some clockwise turning in the low level hodographs (suggesting some low level wind shear) but the lack of significant speed/low level bulk shear will work against much of a tornado threat.

Agree with HPC that most of the region should pick up some very much needed rain. Managed to go the entire month of October without a drop of rain at the house, so I am hoping my house will come in towards the higher end of the HPC forecast (closer to 2'') :D
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Re: November Weather Discussion

Postby svrwx0503 » Sun Oct 31, 2010 11:34 am

SPC AC 311728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND EAST TX BY
MONDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SPITE OF WHAT COULD BE A LATE INITIATION...A SEVERE
THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND TX HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MONDAY EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE RESULTING IN A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM
AROUND SAN ANTONIO ENEWD TO THE HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS.

FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND WRN LA...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Link to outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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