Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:24 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006211308
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:26 am

Code: Select all
151
WHXX01 KWBC 211310
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100621  1200   100622  0000   100622  1200   100623  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  67.2W   13.7N  69.3W   14.4N  71.6W   15.2N  73.9W
BAMD    13.0N  67.2W   13.8N  69.3W   14.5N  71.5W   15.3N  73.7W
BAMM    13.0N  67.2W   13.6N  69.4W   14.3N  71.9W   15.1N  74.3W
LBAR    13.0N  67.2W   14.0N  69.6W   15.2N  72.2W   16.2N  74.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100623  1200   100624  1200   100625  1200   100626  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  76.1W   16.8N  80.1W   17.8N  83.3W   19.1N  85.7W
BAMD    15.9N  75.7W   16.7N  78.9W   17.6N  81.7W   18.6N  84.1W
BAMM    15.7N  76.6W   16.6N  80.3W   17.4N  83.1W   18.5N  85.4W
LBAR    16.9N  77.1W   18.0N  81.1W   19.7N  84.0W   22.2N  85.5W
SHIP        56KTS          70KTS          80KTS          88KTS
DSHP        56KTS          70KTS          80KTS          88KTS
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  60.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby Hardcoreweather » Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:40 am

Hardcoreweather
 

Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby texoz » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:10 am

some reliable posters on wunderground are extremely concerned about this one. low shear & very warm waters over the next few days for 93L
Last edited by texoz on Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby Hardcoreweather » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:13 am

GFS is forecasting almost no shear and with the very warm water this thing will be a real player down the road . If I was to pick a landfall location at this time I would say Northern MX
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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby Hardcoreweather » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:51 am

Image
Hardcoreweather
 

Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:55 am

One thing that raises and eyebrow for me is the strength of the Upper Ridge. Although some guidance suggests it will weaken and shift to our N and E, one has to wonder if that will infact varify. Regardless, I suspect we will see Alex declared before the week is over IMHO.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:00 am

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby ticka1 » Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:01 am

Are we going to be protected by the heat ridge for this one? Or is it going to break down and move aside?
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Re: 93L Central Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:03 am

May see RECON soon as well...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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