January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

Postby BlueJay » Tue Dec 23, 2014 1:57 pm

The topic was inspired by one of srain's recent posts.

:D
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:52 pm

The afternoon Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs and Prognostic Discussion as we begin 2015...

12232014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2014 - JAN 06, 2015

THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH TO ALASKA, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA. SPREAD AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS MODERATE TO
LARGE WITH THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC (WEST-CENTRAL CONUS).

TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT LOWER PROBABILITIES,
COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, REFLECT THE LARGER SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MIDWEST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE DUE TO
ANOMALOUS COLD EARLY IN WEEK-2, WHILE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST.

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHEAST FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. ALTHOUGH BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE POTENTIAL
THAT UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNS LATER IN WEEK-2 LIMITS THE PROBABILITY.

THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA. TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A
RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS ALASKA WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS LATER IN WEEK-2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH


12232014 CPC Day 8 to 14 Temps 814temp_new.gif


12232014 CPC Day 8 to 14 Precip 814prcp_new.gif
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Dec 25, 2014 12:12 pm

I see nothing that looks warm across our Region into the first 10 Days of January. Brrr...

12252014 12Z GFS 360 gfs_T2ma_namer_47.png
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Dec 26, 2014 12:19 pm

The 12Z parallel GFS is 'sniffing' yet another big 1060mb+ Arctic High heading S from the Canadian Prairies in the extended range.

12262014 12Z P GFS  gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif


12262014 12Z P GFS  gfs_namer_360_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:19 am

The Climate Prediction Center in their update yesterday afternoon continue to advertise a pattern conducive of positive tilted upper trough from NE Canada dropping SW into NW Mexico, the Desert SW, the Southern and Central Rockies into the Plains. Such a pattern if it verifies would mean additional shots of Arctic air dropping S from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and the Plains as we near the mid January timeframe.

12262014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif


12262014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs Temps 610analog_temp.gif


12262014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif


12262014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs Temps 814analog_temp.gif
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby Paul Robison » Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:57 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The Climate Prediction Center in their update yesterday afternoon continue to advertise a pattern conducive of positive tilted upper trough from NE Canada dropping SW into NW Mexico, the Desert SW, the Southern and Central Rockies into the Plains. Such a pattern if it verifies would mean additional shots of Arctic air dropping S from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and the Plains as we near the mid January timeframe.

12262014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif


12262014 CPC Day 8+ Analogs Temps 610analog_temp.gif


12262014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif


12262014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs Temps 814analog_temp.gif



Do you know of any big ice storms are in our future, srainhoutex?
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:20 pm

Not in the near future Paul. While it will turn cold, the depth will be shallow leading to a cold rain. After New Years the potential for additional Arctic air could lead to a Winter precip threat but that is a "wait and see".
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby Paul Robison » Sun Dec 28, 2014 10:45 pm

Katdaddy wrote:Not in the near future Paul. While it will turn cold, the depth will be shallow leading to a cold rain. After New Years the potential for additional Arctic air could lead to a Winter precip threat but that is a "wait and see".



Why did I ask? Here's why:

From Srainhoutex:

The Medium Range guidance continues to advertise a very strong Arctic air mass dropping S from the Canadian Prairies into much of the West and Plains. An anomalous 1060mb+ Arctic High with its origin from Northern Siberia continues to settled S across the North Pole and will drop into the Inter Mountain West and Central Plains early tomorrow and push further S spreading a very dense and shallow Arctic air mass deep into the Lower Colorado River Valley as well as the lee side of the Rockies into the Southern Plains into the NW Gulf Coast. This Arctic High is near or slightly below 3 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. The pattern coincides with a +PDO/-EPO Regime.

A very cold positive tilted upper trough will extend from Southern California/Southern Arizona where a cold core 5H low will wrap up into a closed core upper low after the Arctic air arrives into Brownsville and Houston on the 30th into early New Year’s Eve. As the cold core 5H low and trough begin to meander E, embedded short waves will ride NE from the Eastern Pacific setting the stage for warm air to overrun the shallow dense very cold air at the surface. This sort of pattern is a typical Winter Storm setup for extended periods of light freezing drizzle/freezing rain very far S along and N of the I-10 Corridor of Texas and heavy higher elevation snow across the Southern Rockies. This is a classic case of the operational numerical guidance under estimating the dense, shallow very cold air at the surface. We are witnessing all sort of issues from the current storm and much weaker forecasted cold air where sleet and freezing rain is falling this morning where nothing but a cold rain was forecast. The 700mb flow is expected to be easterly creating cold air damming and upslope snow across the Front Range of the Central and Southern Rockies that may extend into Kansas, Western Oklahoma, West Texas, and the Panhandle.

Depending of the eventual evolution of the close core upper low as it track E later next week, the potential is present for a major Ice Storm across the Southern half of Texas extending NE into the Tennessee Valley and possibly the Mid Atlantic. The wild card will be for any potential Coastal low/trough development near Brownsville New Year’s Day and moving NE. It will be interesting to see exactly how this potential Winter Storm develops as we end 2014 and ring in the New Year.

Interesting? You bet.
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:46 am

The GFS continues to indicate at least two more Arctic AIr intrusions into Our Region. The second in a series of strong Arctic fronts arrives on January 6th and a third Arctic intrusion is poised to drop S from the Canadian Prairies around the January 14th time frame.

12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_32.png


12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_T2ma_namer_33.png
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Re: January 2015-A Winter Mess?

Postby Paul Robison » Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:55 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The GFS continues to indicate at least two more Arctic AIr intrusions into Our Region. The second in a series of strong Arctic fronts arrives on January 6th and a third Arctic intrusion is poised to drop S from the Canadian Prairies around the January 14th time frame.

12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_32.png


12292014 06Z GFS 192 gfs_T2ma_namer_33.png


Big ice storm on the way?
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