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NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Rain Chances/Chilly Temperatures Ahead

Postby tireman4 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:37 am

6 to 10 day outlook...
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6 to 10 Day Outlook 11 07 18.PNG
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Rain Chances/Chilly Temperatures Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:50 am

Interestingly, the 12Z GEFS (Ensemble) suggests the potential for a light freeze/frost next Tuesday/Wednesday and possibly Thursday mornings across most areas along and N of I-10. While it is too soon to know exactly what the sensible weather may bring, our Agricultural and Gardening interests may want to follow the future forecast closely.
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11072018 12Z 144 gfs-ens_T2m_us_25.png
11072018 12Z 168 gfs-ens_T2m_us_29.png
11072018 12Z 192 gfs-ens_T2m_us_33.png
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Rain Chances/Chilly Temperatures Ahead

Postby tireman4 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:07 pm

Stepping down, as Srain might say....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 071753
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Surface analysis has cold front from central TX to east TX just
north of a KCLL to KLFK line. The front should slowly slide into
the area. South of the boundary conditions are transitioning from
MVFR to VFR with the possibility of isolated TSRA. TAFs will carry
VCTS given SPC marginal risk and HRRR/WRF runs supporting
convection forming along the front later this afternoon and
evening. There are some TSRA that have formed along the coast so
KLBX and KGLS may need updated for a prevailing TSRA if it looks
like storms along this convergent zone shift into their areas.
KHOU may also see TSRA earlier than what the TAF shows and will be
monitored.

Front should slide south 00Z to 09Z tonight with very slow
progress. We anticipate the front may push to the coast but there
is a chance the front stalls near KLBX and KGLS. This would impact
the ceiling/visibility forecast for tomorrow morning. Assuming
the front pushes through, IFR or even LIFR conditions are expected
with fog/drizzle possible. Current observations behind the front
in north Texas have ceilings 200-800ft. Low ceilings will likely
linger through much of the day tomorrow with not much improvement.
Expectation is for IFR to become MVFR but IFR may hold.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 926 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...
Did make some tweaks to the going forecast...mainly for temper-
atures based on current trends. Another record high is possible
for GLS (previous record is 83 set in 2017 and 1995). Otherwise
fog should continue to burn off by mid morning. Scattered TSRAs
are expected to develop further inland this afternoon. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 60 65 51 57 44 / 50 50 80 50 10
Houston (IAH) 65 74 55 58 46 / 50 40 80 80 20
Galveston (GLS) 69 74 60 63 51 / 50 30 70 80 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Rain Chances/Chilly Temperatures Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:04 pm

The coldest air of the Season looks to arrive Sunday night into Monday. A big dome of Canadian High Pressure settles over East Texas setting the stage for some very chilly early morning temperatures early to mid next week.
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11072018 CPC Day 6 to 10 610temp_new.gif
11072018 Day 7 Surface Chart 9nhwbg_conus.gif
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Rain Chances/Chilly Temperatures Ahead

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm

Flood Advisory continues until 9:30PM for central Harris County:

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

TXC201-080330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0162.181108T0124Z-181108T0330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
724 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 PM CST.

* At 723 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to a slow
moving thunderstorm. This will cause minor flooding within the
advisory area. Up to one to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jersey Village, Greater Greenspoint, northwestern Northside /
Northline, Aldine, northeastern Addicks Park Ten, Fairbanks /
Northwest Crossing, Willowbrook, Hidden Valley, Acres Home, Greater
Inwood, Carverdale, Westbranch and Central Northwest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:16 am

Cold Weather is coming...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CST THU NOV 8 2018

HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-
WALLER-INLAND HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-INLAND JACKSON-
INLAND MATAGORDA-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
SOUTHERN LIBERTY-COASTAL HARRIS-COASTAL JACKSON-COASTAL MATAGORDA-
COASTAL BRAZORIA-COASTAL GALVESTON-MATAGORDA ISLANDS-
BRAZORIA ISLANDS-GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CROCKETT, TRINITY, GROVETON,
MADISONVILLE, HUNTSVILLE, SHEPHERD, COLDSPRING, LIVINGSTON,
CORRIGAN, CALDWELL, SOMERVILLE, COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM,
NAVASOTA, CONROE, THE WOODLANDS, LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON,
COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WEIMAR, SEALY, BELLVILLE, HEMPSTEAD,
PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, HOUSTON, WINNIE, MONT BELVIEU,
ANAHUAC, STOWELL, OLD RIVER-WINFREE, EL CAMPO, WHARTON,
MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND, ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY,
PECAN GROVE, EDNA, GANADO, BAY CITY, PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON,
LEAGUE CITY, FRIENDSWOOD, DEVERS, PASADENA, BAYTOWN, PALACIOS,
LAKE JACKSON, FREEPORT, CLUTE, TEXAS CITY, DICKINSON, LA MARQUE,
SURFSIDE BEACH, AND GALVESTON
609 AM CST THU NOV 8 2018

...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN NEXT
WEEK...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER, SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN FORTUNE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AUTUMN. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FALL INTO THE 50'S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING SO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50'S. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40'S. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA.
AGAIN, THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY
WARM-UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50'S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE MIDDLE 70'S AND THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50'S.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 50'S NORTH TO AROUND
60 SOUTH. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT IS DRY AND DRY
AIR COOLS FASTER AT NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30'S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Texaspirate11 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:23 am

Got over 2 inches of rain last night
Not looking forward to this cold front...at all...
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby CrashTestDummy » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:42 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:Got over 2 inches of rain last night
Not looking forward to this cold front...at all...


The rain gauge on our brand new Acurite weather station that we got to replace the failed Acurite 5-in-1 weather station we had is still not working, so we got 0.00" of rain yesterday. One of the pups, however, is enjoying the water standing in the yard. :roll:

But yeah, I'm anticipating neither the extra rain, nor the colder temps we're expecting the rest of the week and next week.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby jasons » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:56 am

Got another 1.38" last night.

This morning was perfect PERFECT weather for my run. Cool, but not cold. The mist was refreshing.

I am NOT looking forward to the chilly weather ahead for next week!!
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:45 pm

The 12z Euro has a freeze for everyone in SETX Wednesday morning except for the immediate coastline.
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