OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:59 am

Ptarmigan wrote:Michael is more intense than the most intense Texas hurricane, the 1886 Indianola Hurricane. It had a central pressure of 925 millibars. :shock: :o


I thought the wind and damage at Lockport was bad. Storm surge with Michael was higher than expected and rose violently, rising to roof level in Mexico Beach. The winds more blustery than Harvey. Panama Beach, Tyndal AFB, Mexico Beach, St Joe's were absolutely nuked. Anyone who saw Brett Adair's video should have a much healthier respect for Mother Nature.

There was too much complacency...while Florence's flooding was catastrophic it's weakening to a CAT 1 on landfall reduced public's attention span on wind damage, surge.

Michael was the real deal.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cromagnum » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:57 am

Very true. I've spoken to many folks who live on or near the coast who said they will never evacuate for "just a cat 2 or 3", even though we are talking about winds over 100 mph. It blows my mind.

Michael came in so strong that it was still a cat 3 100+ miles inland. How would folks in Conroe on up towards College Station like to be dealing with that if such a strong one hit us?
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:36 am

Clearly we will see heartbreaking devastation across the Panama City to Apalachicola Region and inland where it is heavily forested through Tallahassee in to SW Georgia. Sadly it appears almost half the folks near the Coast did not evacuate. David Paul had a graphic up yesterday of a CAT 3 inland 114 miles in SE Texas as Michael did. Sobering to say the least and why we 'preach' to heed warnings!

Our weekend and early next week weather looks to remain active after a very pleasant morning with cool and dry Northerly breezes. Sergio will move very quickly ENE and be over the Texas Panhandle Saturday spreading heavy rain and storms. In is wake a very strong Fall Cold Front will race S and E with some snow in the Panhandle Sunday night into Monday morning. It does appear we will not clear out behind the front as a very noisy sub tropical jet will be overhead with damp/chilly rain and drizzle continuing into Tuesday hold temperature in check across the Region. Night time lows are held in check by cloud cover, but high temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60's...if not the low 50's for areas NW/N/NE of Metro Houston.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:41 am

srainhoutx wrote:Clearly we will see heartbreaking devastation across the Panama City to Apalachicola Region and inland where it is heavily forested through Tallahassee in to SW Georgia. Sadly it appears almost half the folks near the Coast did not evacuate. David Paul had a graphic up yesterday of a CAT 3 inland 114 miles in SE Texas as Michael did. Sobering to say the least and why we 'preach' to heed warnings!

Our weekend and early next week weather looks to remain active after a very pleasant morning with cool and dry Northerly breezes. Sergio will move very quickly ENE and be over the Texas Panhandle Saturday spreading heavy rain and storms. In is wake a very strong Fall Cold Front will race S and E with some snow in the Panhandle Sunday night into Monday morning. It does appear we will not clear out behind the front as a very noisy sub tropical jet will be overhead with damp/chilly rain and drizzle continuing into Tuesday hold temperature in check across the Region. Night time lows are held in check by cloud cover, but high temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60's...if not the low 50's for areas NW/N/NE of Metro Houston.


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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby unome » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:19 am

very well stated, Dr Shepherd: https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... on-michael

    The staff at the National Hurricane Center work tirelessly providing life-saving information to the public. During disasters like Hurricane Michael, we rightfully thank first responders, emergency managers, and volunteers. They do critical work on the front lines of storm recovery and assistance. However, I am not sure people realize the mental stress meteorologists deal with as conveying life-altering information.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby snowman65 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:23 am

Has everyone had a chance to step outside this morning??? OMG......THIS is the day I look forward to more than any other...that first day you can actually feel the difference. Like the changing of the guard......
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:32 am

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Early images of the damage by one of the strongest hurricanes to ever strike the US coast indicate that a large majority of the damage was contained to the eyewall area of the hurricane. The heaviest of the damage extends from Downtown Panama City (not Panama City Beach) to Tyndall AFB and then Mexico Beach. Downtown Panama City was within the western eyewall of the hurricane, while Panama City Beach was not within the eyewall. Extreme damage occurred from both surge and wind in the eastern eyewall at Mexico Beach.

The majority of the damage over a large section of Panama City and Tyndall AFB looks to be similar to an EF 1 or EF 2 tornado with streaks of EF 3 damage. Michael showed extensive meso vortex imagery during landfall in its eyewall and these small vortices likely accelerated the wind speeds 20-30mph over the background wind in very small streaks. This produces small almost tornado like damage patterns within the overall hurricane eyewall damage pattern.

There has been little information from both Mexico Beach and Port St Joe which took the direct impact of the eastern eyewall.

Comparison of Harvey to Michael:

Wind damage potential increases at an exponential rate on a power scale of 2^8. For example a 100 mph wind produces 10 times more damage than a 75mph wind however a 125mph wind produces 60 times more damage potential than a 75mph wind.

Harvey made landfall at Port Aransas with sustained winds of 130mph and Michael made landfall with sustained winds of 155mph. While the wind speed at landfall of Michael was only 25mph stronger than Harvey, Michael’s damage potential was 251 times greater than Harvey and 333 times greater than a 75mph hurricane. Even a very slight increase in wind between 155mph and 160mph produce a damage potential of 96 times greater damage. Radar data yesterday was showing wind speeds of 175-177mph just above the surface as Michael was making landfall and some of that energy was likely brought to the surface in gusts. A 170mph wind would produce a damage potential of 615 times more than a 130mph wind.

As bad as the damage was at Rockport and Port Aransas, you can clearly see that the wind damage potential from Michael was exceptional. Even with extremely strict building codes across FL, many of the structures could not withstand that type of wind load in the eyewall area of Michael.

The good news is that Michael was moving fairly fast which limited the sustained eyewall winds to about 30-40 minutes unlike Harvey which battered areas for 6-8 hours with very strong winds. This fast forward motion also resulted in Michael maintaining category 3 intensity well inland into southwest Georgia where a 115mph wind gust was reported.

Mexico Beach:

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Panama City:

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St. George Island:

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Port St Joe:

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby texoz » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:51 pm

If Michael had been moving a few miles per hour slower in the 24hrs prior to landfall the wind field would have grown significantly, storm surge would have been higher and the extreme damage more widespread. Would be interesting to see modeling done for such a scenario.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:32 pm

Mid and high level clouds are streaming in from the West this afternoon ahead of TS Sergio rapidly closing in on the Central Baja Peninsula. Sergio appears to keep some of its tropical characteristics as it exits Northern Mexico into Southern New Mexico/Texas Panhandle Friday evening/Saturday morning as a Tropical Depression. I deep trough is digging S across the Great Basin that should keep Sergio trekking ENE as a strong low pressure system develops across portions of the Central/Southern Rockies Saturday night into Sunday ushering in our strong Fall Cold Front. A pesky coastal trough of low pressure looks likely after the front clears the Coast and potentially a deeper area of low pressure could develop along the Frontal Boundary in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf the first half of next week keeping our sensible weather unsettled. The upper trough should build over the Eastern United States with a Ridge in the West keeping a NW flow in the upper levels. A secondary surge of very shallow colder air may arrive later next week keeping temperatures well below climatology for this time of year.

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:21 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Clearly we will see heartbreaking devastation across the Panama City to Apalachicola Region and inland where it is heavily forested through Tallahassee in to SW Georgia. Sadly it appears almost half the folks near the Coast did not evacuate. David Paul had a graphic up yesterday of a CAT 3 inland 114 miles in SE Texas as Michael did. Sobering to say the least and why we 'preach' to heed warnings!

Our weekend and early next week weather looks to remain active after a very pleasant morning with cool and dry Northerly breezes. Sergio will move very quickly ENE and be over the Texas Panhandle Saturday spreading heavy rain and storms. In is wake a very strong Fall Cold Front will race S and E with some snow in the Panhandle Sunday night into Monday morning. It does appear we will not clear out behind the front as a very noisy sub tropical jet will be overhead with damp/chilly rain and drizzle continuing into Tuesday hold temperature in check across the Region. Night time lows are held in check by cloud cover, but high temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60's...if not the low 50's for areas NW/N/NE of Metro Houston.


Category 3 far inland would be really bad anywhere. The area looks like a nuke went off. :shock: :o

The death toll is something I do not want to even think about. :shock: :o :(
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