MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:04 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
256 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 256 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Santa Fe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
La Marque and Hitchcock around 300 AM CDT.
Bayou Vista and Tiki Island around 315 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:07 am

River Forecast Point Monitor, you can further select WFO to narrow selection

https://nwschat.weather.gov/river.php?state=TX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
240 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the following rivers in Texas...
Trinity River In Liberty affecting Chambers and Liberty Counties

For Trinity River at Liberty, Minor flooding is occuring, with Major flooding forecasted.

The current weather is dominated by a slow moving cold front. This weather system will produce rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches. The extended outlook is for drier weather.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few days.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

240 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for The Trinity River In Liberty
* from Friday afternoon until further notice... Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 0215 AM Thursday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast... Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to rise to near 29.4 feet by Sunday early afternoon.
* At 29.0 feet...Major lowland flooding begins as homes in several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive flooding over much of Liberty County can be expected with each incremental rise in the river.
Last edited by unome on Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:08 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
253 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
East central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 AM CDT.

* At 253 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Shoreacres to 6 miles east of Sargent, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and possible brief tornadoes.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Pasadena, League City, Galveston Causeway, Galveston
Island West End, Texas City, southeastern Friendswood, La Porte,
Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe,
Freeport, Seabrook, Clute, Webster, Hitchcock, Kemah and Surfside
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:15 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 330 AM CDT.

* At 311 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Tiki Island, or 7 miles southeast of Hitchcock,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Galveston Island West End, Scholes Field, Schlitterbahn, Moody
Gardens and Offatts Bayou around 315 AM CDT.
Galveston Pleasure Pier around 320 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:19 am

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 290817Z - 290915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty, locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
will remain possible early this morning near the upper
Texas/southwest Louisiana coast. However, watch issuance is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A squall line is pushing east around 35 kt early this
morning along the upper Texas coast, and this evolution should
continue over the next several hours. Ahead of this line, ample
low-level moisture is yielding MLCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg, despite
less impressive lapse rates with eastward extent. In turn, forced
ascent along the leading edge of the line may further foster some
stronger embedded cells, capable of locally gusty, damaging winds.
While deeper-layer shear vectors (e.g., 0-3km and 0-6km) are largely
line parallel, LCH VWP data suggest sufficient streamwise vorticity
in the lowest 1 km or so, such that a line-leading brief tornado or
two could also occur.

..Picca/Thompson.. 03/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby unome » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:52 am

48-hr rainfall reports

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1803290839

highest for Harris County
...Harris County...
6 WSW Spring 7.84 in 0320 AM 03/29
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:57 am

An area of light to moderate rain continues to push E behind the line of strong to severe thunderstorms earlier this morning. Skies will clear later this morning from W to E across SE TX as beautiful, cooler, and drier weather arrives through Easter weekend.
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:07 am

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff regarding Flooding along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River:

Flood Warning has been issued for the West Fork of the San Jacinto River at US 59 (Humble)

Rainfall amounts of 4-5 inches over portions of the Cypress and Spring Creek watersheds is resulting in a rapid rise of the river this morning. The river will likely rise above flood stage this morning and crest about .5 ft above flood stage late today into early Friday. The river is forecast to crest around 50.0 ft. At levels above 49.3 ft minor low land flooding begins downstream (east) of US 59 along the north and south banks of the river in portions of the Northshore and Bellaeu Woods subdivisions. This flooding will mainly impact low roads in these subdivisions, but residents in elevated structures should be aware they may become cut-off as long as the river remains elevated. Additionally at these levels the river turn arounds at the US 59 bridge will be inundated.

It is possible the river could rise slightly higher than currently being forecast
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Re: MARCH 2018 - Heavy Rainfall/Severe Storms Wednesday

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:15 am

Another Update from Jeff:

Rainfall over the last 24 hours has averaged 2-4 inches over much of the area north of I-10 with a band of 6-7 inches from College Station to Lake Livingston.

This is resulting in significant amounts of run-off in area rivers and rise to flood stage and higher are likely on some of these basins.

Trinity River:

Upstream inflows will result in floodgate operations on Lake Livingston and a rise in the river downstream of the lake to major flood levels near Liberty. Major low land flooding is expected along the river starting Saturday morning and lasting into next week. Some subdivisions near Liberty will become cut-off

East Fork San Jacinto River:

River is rising rapidly, but currently forecast to remain below flood stage

West Fork San Jacinto River:

River is rising rapidly and will exceed banks this morning and near moderate flood levels this evening at US 59 (Humble). Some residents near the river in the Northshore and Belleau Woods subdivisions may become cut-off

Brazos:

River is rising, but forecast to remain below flood stage from Bryan to below Richmond

Navasota River:

River is rising but forecast to remain below flood stage

Colorado River:

River is in a rapid rise at Smithville and LaGrange this morning as upstream flood wave from Austin moves downstream. Current forecast keep all points along the Colorado River below flood stage.

Spring Creek:

Creek is at bankfull from the headwaters downstream to east of Hegar Rd. Minor flooding is possible along the creek in this reach this morning mainly impacting low lands near the creek.

Cypress Creek:

Creek is elevated, but will remain below flood stage

Willow Creek:

Creek is elevated and nearing crest below flood stage



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