FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby snowman65 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:26 am

I think Phil (groundhog) missed it this year....lol
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:58 am

snowman65 wrote:I think Phil (groundhog) missed it this year....lol


You never know. It's still chilly and nasty out there and with a high impact solar event to hit the Northern Hemisphere today, things could change down the road. The sun has been extremely quiet throughout the Winter and now we are seeing solar activity pick up. The MJO after being stuck in a very high amplitude in Phase 7 looks to trend toward a less amplified Phase 8 which impacts our part of the World. The latest CFSv2 Climate Models suggest March may come in like a lion with more wild weather and below normal temperatures. Time will tell.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:12 am

A dreary Tuesday........
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:03 am

Possible changes in the Jet Stream?
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby brooksgarner » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:44 pm

Not planting that garden, yet! :D
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby snowman65 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:05 pm

brooksgarner wrote:Not planting that garden, yet! :D


You really can't till mud anyway.... :lol: :lol:
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby tireman4 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:11 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1132 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.AVIATION...
Upper disturbance kicking off the shra/tstms across the e/ne parts
of the area will be moving out of the region this afternoon.
Should see another hour or two of tstm treat in the metro area,
then back to iso/sct shra for the remainder of the day.
Regardless, anticipate mainly IFR conditions throughout the day. A
warm front will be moving toward the coast and inland overnight.
Look for typical conditions associated with these features:
periods of dz, -ra, fog & low ceilings. IFR/LIFR conditions will
persist until close to lunch time Wed before slow improvement
occurs. 47
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:55 pm

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests the coldest air will be located to our West while we remain wet and cloudy.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:35 pm

tireman4 wrote:Possible changes in the Jet Stream?



That's a late winter La Nina pattern.


Is there a risk of an early severe season for Texas in March and early April?

In 2011--a La Niña year-- tornadoes killed more than 550 people, higher than in the previous 10 years combined.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150316135146.htm

Something to keep in mind as the SW flow continues and temps will ride up and down the roller coaster. Rodeo season and Spring Break could feature some bronco busting cells. Be careful what you wish for re: warm weather with this pattern.
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Re: FEBRUARY 2018 - Warming Trend/Weekend Cold Front

Postby jasons » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:35 pm

Bring it. Last year was the first time in years when either the cold shelf waters or the cap didn't kill the whole season. Would be nice to see some action for a change.

And yes, I can say this because I had to replace my roof after last April's ten-minute hail storm. ;-)
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