ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:38 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

Region 1+2 warmed, while Region 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 are unchanged. Not likely to see La Nina this winter.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:41 pm

West of the International Date Line, I see warm water. Could there be another El Nino coming?

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:29 am

I was just commenting this morning that we could end Winter in the Warm Neutral state and move into a Weak Nino this Spring/Summer.

Frankly, Weak Nino's are my favorite. Generally wet and cool.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:12 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:I was just commenting this morning that we could end Winter in the Warm Neutral state and move into a Weak Nino this Spring/Summer.

Frankly, Weak Nino's are my favorite. Generally wet and cool.


Cold Winters With Weak To Moderate El Nino's
1911-1912
1963-1964
1976-1977
1977-1978
2009-2010

Cold Winters With Strong El Nino's
1904-1905
1972-1973

Some of the coldest El Nino's occurred in which the previous winter was La Nina like in
1963-1964
1972-1973
1976-1977
2009-2010

There have been cold winters in Weak to Moderate La Nina's
1894-1895
1898-1899
1959-1960
1962-1963
1983-1984
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:08 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

All regions cooled with the exception of Region 4.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:13 pm

The EURO is forecasting another El Nino developing.

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Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... wsrc%5Etfw
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:32 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is the same.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:37 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is the same.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:18 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled. Region 4 is the same. Region 1+2 is near land, so it can change rapidly.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:20 pm

Forecast model has Neutral by September, October, and November (SON).

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