ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:25 pm

SOI is dropping.

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:17 pm

For 4/23/12

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Team #NeverSummer
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 02, 2012 9:43 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 02, 2012 9:45 pm

Image

Some forecast a strong El Nino, like 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.

The warm upwell is putting an end to the cool water.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu May 10, 2012 12:27 am

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu May 10, 2012 12:28 am

More models are predicting a stronger El Nino this summer.

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ENSO Diagnosis Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Predicts Neutral through the summer.

Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t

Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu May 24, 2012 11:36 am

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

The European predicts El Nino this season.

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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 30, 2012 11:39 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jun 04, 2012 11:34 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

Postby unome » Wed Jun 06, 2012 9:22 pm

they moved the needle more into neutral June 5th on NOAAWatch http://www.noaawatch.gov/

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