Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:10 pm

HPC Model Diagnostics Update through the 12Z Euro:

...CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS

THE NAM IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE UKMET AND THE NAM ARE BOTH STRONG WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE GULF BUT THE 00Z UKMET KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE 12Z NAM. BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS DISTURBANCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...WITH THE FIRST DISCERNIBLE INDICATION OF THE DISTURBANCE
NOT POPPING UP UNTIL THE DAY 3 TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF...STAYING WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND MUCH WEAKER THAN THE NAM/UKMET. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A
VERY DEEP AND STRONG SOLUTION ON DAY 3...MAKING ITS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER AMONGST OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z
GFS HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS BUT IS
STILL FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM AND MUCH WEAKER. THE 12Z UKMET
HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE LOW AND HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH...MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. IT IS STILL ONE OF THE WESTERN MOST
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMPARABLE TO ITS 00Z
RUN...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPTH WISE BUT THE LOW CENTER IS
STILL IN A SIMILAR LOCATION.


Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:24 pm

A repost that I made in the Labor Day Weekend weather thread on the main page. Updated HPC extended surface charts are out: (note the stalling frontal boundary depicted to the N of our area)...

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby Rip76 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:37 pm

Just off the coast far enough to spare us from rainfall?
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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby Met Tech » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:41 pm

In the 12Z GFS, the storm looks like it is trapped in a padded room being chased around by rabid squirrels.

It'll be a slap in the face if that front comes in strong enough to blast everything to the south before it does any good.
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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby am19psu » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:46 pm

Gah. How did this storm go from a quick spin up to a monsoon depression. What a mess. Hopefully y'all can get some better rains than currently modeled out of this.
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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby djjordan » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:48 pm

I don't think anyone is really taking into account the enormous amount of moisture that will stream in if that "weak" low actually does verify and meander around down there. The moisture combined with the front from the north will squeeze out some heavy downpours along the Texas Gulf Coast. Just my two cents.
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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby Met Tech » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:50 pm

I don't think anyone is really taking into account the enormous amount of moisture that will stream in if that "weak" low actually does verify and meander around down there. The moisture combined with the front from the north will squeeze out some heavy downpours along the Texas Gulf Coast. Just my two cents.


True enough. My hometown is between San Antonio and Del Rio, where it looks like Mars right now. I'm hoping to have some frontal lift/tropical moisture combination go to work out there, but it's not looking too promising (from this far out anyway).
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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:58 pm

I'm already seeing some ramp up in discussions from New Orleans to Brownsville. Coastal effects are most noteable right now and the HPC is ramping up as well. Should make for an interesting long Holiday Weekend and early next week regardless...

OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO... THERE IS CURRENTLY NO FEATURE FOR
WHICH THE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER BY THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THE AVERAGE OF ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24
HRS HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH A MID LVL WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CLOSED
LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW OVER THE WRN OR NRN GULF. THE 00Z AND YDAYS
12Z ECMWF RUNS WERE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
ITS DEVELOPMENT BUT THE NEW 12Z RUN IS MUCH WEAKER/MORE
SUPPRESSED. THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON THE NERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THE FINAL FCST INCORPORATES THE 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION FOR
TRACK/STRENGTH WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLN RECOMMENDED FOR BOTH
PARAMETERS.



THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RNFL DURING THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST IN ASSOC WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FCST
TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE CURRENT
SPREAD AMONG MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF FRONTS
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL-ERN STATES... ACCOMPANIED BY
SHWRS/TSTMS OF VARYING INTENSITY.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby jeff » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:21 pm

something is likely to develop in the Friday-Sunday period. Where is goes and how strong is up for much debate. HPC progs are really pushing the heavy rainfall well east of the coordinated NHC/HPC points. I think they may be too far east/north. Watch out for a coastal flooding event with a slow moving/stalled system for several days leading to a gradual increase in tides and seas over several tide cycles (TS Frances 98). Leaving anything over the NW Gulf this time of year is cause for at least some concern.
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Re: Possible Labor Day Gulf Storm!

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:01 pm

If this storm was like Frances of 1998, it would be a huge rainmaker and large storm. As for where it goes, too early to tell until it develops.
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