Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:44 am

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby Met Tech » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:03 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...


Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.
User avatar
Met Tech
Pro Met
Pro Met
 
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:32 am
Location: North Platte, NE/ Sabinal, TX

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:07 pm

What is becoming rather clear is that we will see the genesis of a large storm in the NW Caribbean in the next 6-10 days. Where this cyclone ends up is pure speculation at this point. The worrisome point is that area of the NW Caribbean has a history of spawning some Hurricane names that will not soon be forgotten. We will see what the other guidance offers today.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:09 pm

Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...


Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.


I've been thinking about that as well, Cory. Contruction of some sort of 'shield' without affecting the readings and performance of the Kestrel is certainly a challenge.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:18 pm

12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17808
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby Met Tech » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:29 pm

My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.

Image
User avatar
Met Tech
Pro Met
Pro Met
 
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:32 am
Location: North Platte, NE/ Sabinal, TX

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby sambucol » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:30 pm

srainhoutx wrote:12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..

Is there anything preventing this storm from heading our way on the upper TX coast?
User avatar
sambucol
 
Posts: 506
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:43 pm
Location: Baytown

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby sambucol » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:31 pm

Met Tech wrote:My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.
http://www.sanfordlabs.com/WRF/caribbean1.png


What would that mean for the track in the GOM?
User avatar
sambucol
 
Posts: 506
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:43 pm
Location: Baytown

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby Met Tech » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:34 pm

sambucol wrote:
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?


I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.
User avatar
Met Tech
Pro Met
Pro Met
 
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:32 am
Location: North Platte, NE/ Sabinal, TX

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Postby sambucol » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:35 pm

Met Tech wrote:
sambucol wrote:
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?


I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.


Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target.
User avatar
sambucol
 
Posts: 506
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:43 pm
Location: Baytown

PreviousNext

Return to Hurricane Central

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest