2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:48 am

With just 49 Days away from the beginning of the 2018 NATL Hurricane Season, it's time to begin looking ahead to what we need to do in advance of any Tropical Troubles. First and most importantly if you are a Home Owner and live in Texas/Louisiana or anywhere along the Gulf Coast you need to purchase Flood Insurance...period!! I know that many of us are or have been experiencing Hurricane Harvey Flood Fatigue, but we must be honest with ourselves that living along the Gulf Coast always will bring a threat of Tropical Storms/Hurricanes for our Region EVERY Season. Now is the time to prepare in advance and not wait until there is a mass of tropical thunderstorms spinning in the Gulf Of Mexico.

The experts are giving us clues that we may see slightly above average Tropical Activity this Season. I know many folks do not want to hear this, but there is a risk that Texas may see another landing Tropical Cyclone again this year. While the average return rate of Major Land falling Hurricane is slightly above 20years, history proves to us that it can and has happened along the Texas Coast of back to back seasonal Major Hurricanes impacting our Coastline.

La Nina continues to wane, but ENSO Neutral conditions appear most likely during the Peak of Hurricane Season (August/September/October). Now what does that mean? Atmospheric conditions at this time do not appear to be hostile for potential Tropical Systems to develop such as upper level wind shear, above normal mean sea level pressures and cool to cold sea surface temperatures. While there will always be outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer or African Dust moving across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean just West of the African Coast to the Caribbean Islands, never forget that it's those storms that quickly organize very close to home that typically give us fits versus those long tracking Hurricanes that we watch for sometimes two weeks (think of Hurricane Ike).

So let's start the discussions now as we begin to prepare in advance of Hurricane Season 2018. For those of us in SE Texas that think we experienced a Hurricane last year, we did not. Harvey made landfall well SW of Houston along Mustang Island and Rockport where storm surge and extremely violent Major Hurricane winds devastated that part of Texas and recovery there is not progressing very quickly at all. Rockport and surround areas still bear the scares of Harvey as well as anyone living in that Region. My biggest challenge as a communicator of Weather is to make absolutely sure that everyone fully understands that it's been a long time since we experienced a Hurricane. 10 years since Ike and a least a Million more people now live in Metro Houston that have NEVER experienced a Hurricane. It's been 35 years since the Upper Texas Coast experienced a Major Hurricane (1983 Alicia) and it was a small Hurricane. It's been 57 years since a very Large Major Hurricane made landfall along the Middle Texas Coast (1961 Carla).

To sum up, let's recommit as a Weather Community to share with our Families and Neighbors a friendly reminder that Hurricane Season is coming again shortly. Let's also recommit our efforts here on the KHOU Weather Forum to provide factual and accurate information if/when Tropical Troubles once again come our way.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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