2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

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2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:48 am

With just 49 Days away from the beginning of the 2018 NATL Hurricane Season, it's time to begin looking ahead to what we need to do in advance of any Tropical Troubles. First and most importantly if you are a Home Owner and live in Texas/Louisiana or anywhere along the Gulf Coast you need to purchase Flood Insurance...period!! I know that many of us are or have been experiencing Hurricane Harvey Flood Fatigue, but we must be honest with ourselves that living along the Gulf Coast always will bring a threat of Tropical Storms/Hurricanes for our Region EVERY Season. Now is the time to prepare in advance and not wait until there is a mass of tropical thunderstorms spinning in the Gulf Of Mexico.

The experts are giving us clues that we may see slightly above average Tropical Activity this Season. I know many folks do not want to hear this, but there is a risk that Texas may see another landing Tropical Cyclone again this year. While the average return rate of Major Land falling Hurricane is slightly above 20years, history proves to us that it can and has happened along the Texas Coast of back to back seasonal Major Hurricanes impacting our Coastline.

La Nina continues to wane, but ENSO Neutral conditions appear most likely during the Peak of Hurricane Season (August/September/October). Now what does that mean? Atmospheric conditions at this time do not appear to be hostile for potential Tropical Systems to develop such as upper level wind shear, above normal mean sea level pressures and cool to cold sea surface temperatures. While there will always be outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer or African Dust moving across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean just West of the African Coast to the Caribbean Islands, never forget that it's those storms that quickly organize very close to home that typically give us fits versus those long tracking Hurricanes that we watch for sometimes two weeks (think of Hurricane Ike).

So let's start the discussions now as we begin to prepare in advance of Hurricane Season 2018. For those of us in SE Texas that think we experienced a Hurricane last year, we did not. Harvey made landfall well SW of Houston along Mustang Island and Rockport where storm surge and extremely violent Major Hurricane winds devastated that part of Texas and recovery there is not progressing very quickly at all. Rockport and surround areas still bear the scares of Harvey as well as anyone living in that Region. My biggest challenge as a communicator of Weather is to make absolutely sure that everyone fully understands that it's been a long time since we experienced a Hurricane. 10 years since Ike and a least a Million more people now live in Metro Houston that have NEVER experienced a Hurricane. It's been 35 years since the Upper Texas Coast experienced a Major Hurricane (1983 Alicia) and it was a small Hurricane. It's been 57 years since a very Large Major Hurricane made landfall along the Middle Texas Coast (1961 Carla).

To sum up, let's recommit as a Weather Community to share with our Families and Neighbors a friendly reminder that Hurricane Season is coming again shortly. Let's also recommit our efforts here on the KHOU Weather Forum to provide factual and accurate information if/when Tropical Troubles once again come our way.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:34 pm

That time of year is steadily approaching. 30 days until the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season across the Atlantic Basin. National Hurricane Preparedness week is May 6-12. Its time begin thinking about your preps and plans should we have a hurricane threat this year.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 04, 2018 9:15 am

I mentioned earlier in the week of a potential sub tropical/extra tropical disturbance attempting to organize this weekend near the Bahamas. At this time there is no low level circulation detected with this disturbance and the NHC is not even mentioning it at this time. It may bring some gusty winds to portions of S Florida N of the Palm Beaches and possibly a brief heavy squall across the Bahamas. It serves as a reminder that we are nearing Tropical Season when eyes turn to the Gulf/Caribbean Sea/Atlantic Ocean for any potential Tropical Troubles that may come our way. It's that time of year once again!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 04, 2018 9:53 am

05042018 NHC Special 1044 AM EDT two_atl_2d0.png


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1045 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is
associated with an upper-level low pressure system and a surface
trough. The system is forecast to move westward over the Florida
peninsula on Saturday with no significant development. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the
Bahamas and southern Florida through this weekend. Please monitor
products from your local weather office for more details. No
additional Special Outlooks on this system will be issued unless
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Pasch/Blake
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby stormlover » Mon May 07, 2018 1:19 pm

it's getting close here is the GFS run today, phantom but season is coming

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=384
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 08, 2018 7:05 am

stormlover wrote:it's getting close here is the GFS run today, phantom but season is coming

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=384


Keep an eye on a favorable MJO and a CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave) that likely led to the designation of 90E yesterday in the Eastern Pacific. Somewhat favorable conditions may arrive in the Gulf/Caribbean/Atlantic in about 10 days. Even the New GFS and its most powerful computing power that the United States has ever had in a weather computer model is "sniffing" potential development. This New GFS is hoped to compete very strongly with the ECMWF when it becomes operational in a year or so.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby jasons » Tue May 08, 2018 11:07 am

Anyone know what's up with the NOAA SST Anomaly page? It hasn't updated since April 9th:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Edit: looks like a new URL: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... index.html
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Sat May 12, 2018 9:48 pm

We are beginning to see our reliable guidance suggest a Central America Gyre (CAG) due to SW winds piling up from the Eastern Pacific along the Central America Pacific Coast causing wind convergence across the Western Caribbean and slowly lowering pressure and monsoonal thunderstorms to organize. The process is typically slow and Cindy last year developed in June from a similar Gyre. Perhaps the so called extended range GFS "fantasy cane" sniffed the gyre development first. I see the ECMWF now has joined the GFS solution for such a possibility.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby Katdaddy » Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

E GOM disturbance being mentioned by the NHC this afternoon.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 18, 2018 6:55 am

As was mentioned last week, a broad area of lower pressure is expected to slowly develop this coming week across Central America. A very large and elongated monsoonal gyre with multiple areas of potential low level vorticity may attempt to develop in the general area of the NW Caribbean Sea. Typically it takes a while for anything to consolidate into a single well define circulation center, if at all. That said the overnight Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities increased via the GEFS, ECMWF EPS and Canadian Ensembles indicating a possible 50% chance of TC Genesis with the next 120 hours.
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