Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby Belmer » Fri Aug 03, 2012 1:13 pm

gocuse22 wrote:GFDL and HWRF still trend north


That they do. GFDL use to be a REALLY good model a few years ago, however, that hasn't been the case the past couple of years. Although, if Ernesto starts making a quick WNW to NW turn and more toward the Eastern Gulf, it could be on to something.
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby Andrew » Fri Aug 03, 2012 1:24 pm

The key here is a stronger system will feel the weakness and head more NW. A weaker system will continue west.
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 03, 2012 1:52 pm

12Z HWRF & GFDL:
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08032012 12Z HWRF uv900_swath_p_1.png
08032012 12Z GFDL uv900_swath_nest3.png
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:06 pm

Ernesto has some deep warm water in the Caribbean. Could intensify into a major hurricane.

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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby biggerbyte » Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:18 pm

The concern I have right now is the possibility of Ernesto slowing and rapidly strengthening in the SE or SC Gulf, then starting that more northerly path. Srain mentioned that a couple of posts as well. Stalling near Mexico then heading north would not bode very well for the Texas coastline, unless you want to see a Hurricane.
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:21 pm

18Z Tracks & Intensity...significant shift N in tracks...
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 03, 2012 3:09 pm

HPC Final Afternoon Update:

...ERNESTO...

NHC FORECASTS A HURRICANE ON DY 5 NEARING THE YUCATAN. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...ALLOWING US TO MOVE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SWIFTLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON DY 6/7. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC
CONCERNING ERNESTO.

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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby Alvin Girl » Fri Aug 03, 2012 3:19 pm

srain, now that 91L is on the board - what does this mean for Ernesto? Is it possible that we could have two storms heading in our direction next week? :shock:
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: Entering The Eastern Caribbean

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 03, 2012 3:26 pm

Alvin Girl wrote:srain, now that 91L is on the board - what does this mean for Ernesto? Is it possible that we could have two storms heading in our direction next week? :shock:



91L is a fly in the ointment in the forecast. As far as what that might mean regarding Ernesto's future track, I suspect that the East Coast trough and weakness expected across the Central Gulf Coast as well as a short wave diving ESE from Canada will be the key players in how everything evolves. Stay tuned!

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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto: In the Eastern Caribbean

Postby JasonFontaine » Fri Aug 03, 2012 3:35 pm

How are the models picking up Ernesto - and show nothing of 91L?
Seriously - sorry - I am new and curious how this work itself out? While the models are indeed not perfect - shouldn't they sniff it out? Thanks -
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