2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby wxman57 » Fri May 18, 2018 11:28 am

Regardless of what may or may not develop in the NW Caribbean late next week, I don't see it "threatening" us with any rainfall. Hot and dry to continue.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:08 am

I am starting to notice the Central America Gyre associated with the usual monsoonal trough becoming active again in about 2 weeks or so. The GFS and its Ensemble schemes are "sniffing" out such a pattern, but probably rushing things a bit as it did with Alberto. That said the Hemispheric pattern suggests a very robust Eastern Pacific Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave should arrive into the Western Atlantic Basin in about 2 1/2 to 3 weeks creating an upper air pattern conducive for tropical development, if something does spin up.

I still see a strong upper ridge over Texas and the Western Gulf with a weakness or upper trough just to our East. If Beryl were to develop, the Central Gulf on East looks to be the most favored area at this time. Always remember that it only takes one to make for a very bad season!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:25 pm

As mentioned above, some of the models have been suggesting a area of disturbed weather emerging from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf next week. The 12Z ECMWF finally showed a weak mid level spin at 850mb in the Western Gulf later this week into next weekend. I see the ECMWF and its ensembles as well as the NCEP Ensembles suggest a bit of a favorable MJO in Phase 1 along with a vigorous Convectively Couple Kelvin wave arriving in the Western Atlantic Basin next week suggesting condition may become a bit more favorable for some weak tropical formation. The best we can hope for is an increasing chance of rainfall as some very deep tropical moisture heads our way later next week into next weekend. Nothing to get all worked up over at this time, but we'll be monitoring.
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06092018 MJC ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussions

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:34 pm

It appears 95L which is a vigorous wave the passed the Cape Verse Islands several days ago with a favorable CCKW might make to a an official name waster. SAL is brutal ahead of it.
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