Subtropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis

Subtropical Storm Alberto

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 21, 2018 5:25 pm

The National Hurricane Center has designated the area of disturbed weather associated with a monsoonal trough across Central America as INVEST 90L. The various Hurricane guidance will be initiated to assist in forecasting if this disturbance has a chance to organize.
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Re: INVEST 90L: Western Caribbean Disturbance

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 22, 2018 6:12 am

The overnight Ensembles have increased Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities to near 80% as we head toward the end of the week. Currently there is no threat of any tropical mischief to the NW Gulf Coast, but we may see an uptick in rain chances depending on exactly where the Upper Trough situates its self this weekend and just how much our West Texas Ridge can relax overhead. The greatest chance of heavy copious rainfall appears likely for Louisiana and location on East into Florida.
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05222018 00Z Ensemble TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2018052200_altg_000_120.png
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Re: INVEST 90L: NW Caribbean Disturbance

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 23, 2018 6:46 am

The overnight TC Genesis Probabilities increased to a 90% chance of TC Genesis over the next 48 hours and 100% chance over the next 120 hours.
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05232018 00Z 48 H TC Gen Probs genprob_4enscon_2018052300_altg_000_048.png
05232018 00Z 120H TC Gen Probs genprob_4enscon_2018052300_altg_000_120.png
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Re: INVEST 90L: NW Caribbean Disturbance

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 23, 2018 7:04 am

Track guidance is finally out for 90L. It appears that the next 48 hours will be over the Yucatan Peninsula suggesting very slow movement and if the intensity guidance is correct, little in the way of a wind issue.
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05232018 06Z 90L_tracks_latest.png
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Re: INVEST 90L: NW Caribbean Disturbance

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 23, 2018 7:30 pm

Wednesday evening briefing from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone formation likely across the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

National Hurricane Center indicates a 70% chance of develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Discussion:
A broad area of surface low pressure has formed along the eastern coasts of Belize and the Yucatan today and this broad low pressure system has shown signs of becoming better organized. Currently this system is interacting with the landmass of the Yucatan so any development over the next 24-36 hours will be slow. As this system drifts northward into the SE Gulf of Mexico late this week/early this weekend conditions may become slightly more favorable for a tropical or sub-tropical depression to form. The current broad area of low pressure is part of a larger circulation currently located across central America and due to the interaction of this and a developing upper level low/trough over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend it is unclear at this time exactly how favorable conditions may be in the Gulf of Mexico.

Given the time of year (early), and combination of upper level shear from the upper level trough, and the large nature of the system lifting out of the Caribbean Sea only slow development is expect. Any defined surface center should track nearly due northward toward the US Gulf coast and make landfall late this weekend or early next week between SE Louisiana and the FL panhandle. The main threat from this system is currently excessive rainfall over the next several days from SE Louisiana eastward across much of FL.

At this time, based on the current guidance products available, this system should remain well east of SE TX and result in a gradual drying of the air mass over the region into the weekend with warming conditions. It is possible record highs could be established over the Memorial Day weekend due to ENE/NE surface winds and drier low level air mass.

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Re: INVEST 90L: NW Caribbean Disturbance

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 25, 2018 7:07 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical storm formation likely over the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Persons along the US Gulf coast from SE Louisiana to FL should closely monitor the progress of the system.

Surface low pressure is becoming better organized over the Yucatan and will lift northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend where upper level conditions will gradually become better for slow development of this feature. An upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico will gradually deepen and become oriented from SE to NW which will help draw the system northward and then NNW/NW toward the US Gulf coast this weekend. Additionally, the system will slow as it approaches the coast and the upper level steering pattern weakens. IT is uncertain at this time how strong the feature could become. The interaction with the upper level low and trough will produce some degree of shear across the system, but as it nears the US Gulf coast conditions become increasingly favorable for development.

Excessive rainfall over a large area of the central and eastern US Gulf coast is likely along with gusty winds and in some locations the potential for storm surge flooding. Rainfall totals of 15-20 inches will be possible form SE LA to much of FL over the next 5-7 days.

At this time there continues to be little threat to SE TX.


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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 25, 2018 9:55 am

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend,
followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track,
Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning,
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and
approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto

Postby unome » Sun May 27, 2018 9:28 am

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Alberto
(edit to add 11AM)
11:00 AM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 27.1°N 84.4°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

8:00 AM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 26.3°N 84.4°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 1289505794
NHC Director Ken Graham will provide a live update from the NHC hurricane operations room regarding Subtropical Storm #Alberto. Be watching via Facebook Live at 11:15 a.m. EDT (10:15 a.m. CDT) this morning. http://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC #HurricanePrep


recon in there now: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/
Code: Select all
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2018
Storm Name: Alberto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 13:15:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°49'N 84°25'W (26.8167N 84.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 144 statute miles (232 km) to the SW (236°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,377m (4,518ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 135° at 49kts (From the SE at 56.4mph)
G. Location of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.36 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) which was observed 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 12:55:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 11kts (From the SSE at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)


COD Meso 1 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

Code: Select all
AL, 01, 2018052018,   , BEST,   0, 172N,  813W,  20, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS002,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052100,   , BEST,   0, 173N,  822W,  20, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS002,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052106,   , BEST,   0, 174N,  831W,  20, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS002,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052112,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  838W,  20, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS002,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052118,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  845W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180, 120,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002, SPAWNINVEST, al722018 to al902018,
AL, 01, 2018052200,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  852W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180, 120,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052206,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  858W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180, 120,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052212,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  863W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180, 120,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052218,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  868W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  210, 180,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052300,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  873W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  210, 180,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052306,   , BEST,   0, 178N,  878W,  25, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  240, 180,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052312,   , BEST,   0, 182N,  881W,  25, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  210, 165,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052318,   , BEST,   0, 187N,  883W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  210, 150,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052400,   , BEST,   0, 190N,  884W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  210, 150,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052406,   , BEST,   0, 191N,  883W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  210, 120,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052412,   , BEST,   0, 193N,  882W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  210, 100,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052418,   , BEST,   0, 196N,  882W,  30, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  200, 100,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052500,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  880W,  30, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  200, 100,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052506,   , BEST,   0, 194N,  876W,  30, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  200,  80,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052512,   , BEST,   0, 194N,  870W,  35, 1005, SS,  34, NEQ,  100,  100,    0,    0, 1013,  200,  65,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002, TRANSITIONED, alA02018 to al012018,
AL, 01, 2018052518,   , BEST,   0, 194N,  864W,  35, 1005, SS,  34, NEQ,  100,  100,    0,    0, 1013,  200,  65,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052600,   , BEST,   0, 193N,  858W,  35, 1006, SS,  34, NEQ,  120,  100,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  75,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M, 12, NEQ,  120,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052606,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  856W,  35, 1005, SS,  34, NEQ,  120,  100,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  90,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M, 12, NEQ,  120,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052612,   , BEST,   0, 209N,  852W,  35, 1004, SS,  34, NEQ,  120,  100,    0,    0, 1008,  200,  90,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052618,   , BEST,   0, 228N,  852W,  35,  999, SS,  34, NEQ,  120,  100,    0,    0, 1009,  180,  90,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052700,   , BEST,   0, 234N,  848W,  35, 1001, SS,  34, NEQ,  120,  100,    0,    0, 1008,  190,  90,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052706,   , BEST,   0, 245N,  845W,  35, 1001, SS,  34, NEQ,  130,  100,    0,    0, 1008,  200,  90,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M, 12, NEQ,   60,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 01, 2018052712,   , BEST,   0, 265N,  844W,  40,  997, SS,  34, NEQ,  110,   60,    0,   60, 1008,  210,  60,  50,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ALBERTO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 002,
unome
 
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Re: Subtropical Storm Alberto

Postby unome » Mon May 28, 2018 8:13 am

I'm surprised it stayed at 65mph overnight https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Alberto

7:00 AM CDT Mon May 28
Location: 29.0°N 86.0°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents
unome
 
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