Major Hurricane Maria: Heading Near Bahamas

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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:59 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff regarding Maria:

Major hurricane event likely for the Leeward Island, US/British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico

Discussion:
USAF mission in Maria this morning indicates the hurricane is undergoing rapid intensification with flight levels winds of 115kts and estimated surface winds of 104kts and a surface pressure down to 959mb. This data confirmed that Maria has become a major hurricane and was upgraded to a category 3 at 1000am. The aircraft has also found a small 10 mile wide eye which is also confirmed by radar images from the island of Martinique.

Track:
Maria has track slightly left (west) over the last few hours…likely a result of the rapidly organizing inner core convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will keep Maria on a general WNW motion for the next 4-5 days bringing a devastating hurricane across the Leeward Islands tonight and toward Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Islands in the next 36 hours. As the hurricane moves NW of Puerto Rico, its interaction with the remains of Jose over the NW Atlantic become increasingly important as this will likely determine if Maria moves more toward the right and remains offshore of the US coast or tracks more west and threats the SE/E US. The ensemble guidance spread is very large and the uncertainty is higher than usual for the track forecast beyond day 5 as the hurricane nears the Bahamas

Intensity:
Maria is undergoing rapid intensification and there appears to be little in the way to prevent continued intensification. NHC brings Maria to a very strong category 4 hurricane as it moves across the Leeward Islands and it is certainly possible Maria could become a category 5 hurricane as it approaches Puerto Rico given the excellent conditions along the path of the hurricane.

Maria will bring incredible damage to portions of the Leeward Island tonight and catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Islands in the next 36 hours. A much larger population will be heavily impacted by Maria compared to Irma a few weeks ago as Maria will track across more of the Islands and the heavy population centers on Puerto Rico which largely escaped Irma.
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:53 pm

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.

It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.

If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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09183017 5 PM AST Maria 205325_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:52 pm

Hurricane Maria is now a CAT 5 at 160MPH.

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Maria.


SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

NNNN
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby TexasBreeze » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:00 pm

The Atlantic is spitting out 5's like the west Pac this season! It looks like a direct hit on Dominica and then Puerto Rico.
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:46 pm

Monday evening briefing from Jeff for CAT 5 Maria:

Reports from USFA mission indicate Maria has rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane with sustained surface winds of 160mph.

Eye of Maria is only 15 miles ESE of the island of Dominica and the catastrophic landfall of this hurricane is likely within the next 1-2 hours across the island. Few if any structures will survive the sustained 160mph winds. In fact the winds are so intense that a USAF mission dropsonde released into the southern eyewall rotated all the way to the northern eyewall before hitting the ocean surface. Equipment on the aircraft have been recording surface winds in the intense eyewall of 168kts (193mph), but some of this is likely strong gusts in the intense eyewall convection.

Maria has an extremely small inner core similar to Wilma (2005) which has allowed the incredible rate of intensification from a TS to category 5 hurricane in 50 hours.

There appears to be little to disrupt the inner core and Maria will strike the island of Dominica and then move in the direction of Puerto Rico…likely as a category 5 hurricane. This will be potentially the strongest hurricane event for Puerto Rico since 1928.

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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:59 pm

Hurricane Maria made landfall on Dominica as a Category 5 hurricane. :shock: :o

Code: Select all
000
WTNT35 KNHC 190254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea on Tuesday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to
remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it approaches the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  Ham radio reports indicate significant damage to
structures has occurred in Dominica.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is
924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should continue over Dominica during
the next few hours.  Hurricane conditions should spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands
tonight and early Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions should spread
through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area Tuesday
and Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in
St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight, and are possible in
the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0254.shtml
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:28 am

Hurricane Maria has strengthen back to a 160MPH CAT 5 this morning after blasting Dominica last night. Information via Twitter indicates massive destruction across the island. This will be a search and rescue day for Dominica.

Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands are the next target of Maria.
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:40 pm

Incredible CAT 5 Hurricane Maria now at 175MPH continues to intensify this evening on the way to St Croix and Puerto Rico. Many Prayers for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
700 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...700 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA STILL STRENGTHENING...

Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).

A wind gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in the eastern portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brown
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:48 pm

909 millibars puts Hurricane Maria in top 10 most intense recorded hurricane in the Atlantic. :shock: :o
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Re: Major Hurricane Maria:Watches/Warnings Caribbean Islands

Postby unome » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:16 am

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