August Weather Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:13 am

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

The records continue to fall and the situation across the state is becoming increasingly desperate for rainfall. Some of the record are just amazing on the drought and shows how bad things have become!

Some hope for widespread heavy rainfall this afternoon-Friday night over SW/W/C TX

Locally the strong heat ridge remains in place with yesterday being the tenth straight day at or above 100…we will do it again today and likely again Friday. The streak to break the 1980 record is 14 and to tie it would be on Sunday. It would appear that the ridge may weaken just enough over the weekend to drop 1-3 degrees off the high temperature which would support 98-101 across the region, so it is in question if the current 100 degree streak will be broken or tied.

Other big news is the possibility of “real” rain chances for our friends to the west of SE TX over SW/W/C TX. A weakness has developed along the eastern side of the ridge over N and C TX and moisture is pooling northward from the lower Rio Grande into W TX. Intense afternoon heating combined with a weak northerly flow aloft and disturbances rotating around the ridge will likely result in explosive thunderstorms formation this afternoon. Storm motions appear to be rather slow and moisture level high so the threat for short term excessive rainfall looks good from SW of San Antonio toward the NNE mainly west of I-35. Will need to keep an eye on meso scale trends for any eastward advancement of any thunderstorm complex. Set up is somewhat similar to past flooding events over the TX Hill Country where weak low to mid level low pressure systems evolve in a very tropical environment and begin to act like tropical systems producing excessive rainfall near/around their cores at night. It appears some decent rains may fall on the headwaters of the parched central TX rivers, but then again we are in one of the worst droughts on record and potential with previous systems has gone unrealized.

Heat:
Below is some comparison data to the summer of 1980 (hottest summer ever for TX) and 2011 for the number of days at or above 100:

College Station: 43 (1980), 38 (2011)
Huntsville: 43 (1980), 45 (2011)
Conroe: 22 (1980), 27 (2011)
BUSH IAH: 32 (1980), 21 (2011)
Hobby: 8 (1980), 6 (2011)
Dallas: 69 (1980), 47 (2011)
Waco: 63 (1980), 59 (2011)
Austin Mabry: 32 (1980), 57 (2011), record year is 69 in 1925
Del Rio: 56 (1980), 63 (2011), record year is 78 in 1953
San Antonio: 31 (1980), 33 (2011), record year is 59 in 2009

Number of consecutive days at or above 100 degrees:

Dallas: 42 (1980), 40 (2011)
Waco: 42 (1980), 42 (2011) *Today will break this record*
BUSH IAH: 14 (1980), 10 (2011)

So far for August of 2011, most of the climate sites in SE TX are on their way to breaking their hottest monthly temperature FOR ANY MONTH by 2-3 degrees!

Drought:
Things are bad and getting worse by the day with respect to water supply, vegetation, and agricultural impacts. The impacts to agriculture and livestock are approaching severe levels with cattle running out of drinking water from drying creeks and ponds. Vegetation has stopped growing and died in many ranch areas with feed being trucked into from the central plains for cattle. We are really getting into a bad situation quickly and we desperately need widespread rainfall. The majority of irrigation currently is just to keep vegetation alive at this point and with increasing water conservation measures likely vegetation already stressed is going to suffer even more.

Houston has now gone 198 days between 1.0 inch rainfall events breaking the previous record of 192 days from 1917-1918

Only 6.36 inches of rain has fallen in the last 191 days for the City of Houston (IAH) making this by far the driest Feb-Aug 10 period ever. This breaks the previous record by an astounding 6.25 inches of rainfall…that is an amazing record!!! At Hobby Airport for the same time period the record is being broken by 5.17 inches!


The period from August 2010 to August 2011 is now the driest 1-year period ever for the City of Houston.

Water Supply:
For the first time since the drought of 1988 the City of Houston is going to be requesting emergency releases from Lake Conroe to help stabilize the rapid fall that is occurring on Lake Houston (the primary water supply for the City of Houston). This is only the third time ever this action has been required. Water intake pipes on Lake Houston are getting dangerously low to becoming exposed and causing damage to the water supply system. With this action likely next week, the City of Houston will move to Stage 2 water conservation (mandatory water restrictions). This is going to have a significant impact on the lake levels at Conroe as releases begin, and the lake will begin to fall due to the releases that are going to be required to help stop the rapid decline on Lake Houston.

Lake Somerville and Lake Texana are now close to 50% of their capacity and falling. Lake Somerville has lost an astounding 11% of its capacity in the last 3 weeks!

Outlook:
I have really no good news, as any rains over the next 48 hours will likely be focused west of SE TX. 14 day outlook continues to feature below normal rainfall unless something can develop and threaten from the tropics.

NOAA issued a La Nina Watch this week suggesting that the return of cooling in the central Pacific may once again result in La Nina conditions this fall-winter-spring….if this happens rainfall will average below normal through much of this winter and this drought will only worsen if we do not get some kind of tropical system in the next 2 months.
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby jasons » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:32 am

It's depressing almost to the point of sickening, really. Thank goodness we saw SOME rain last month or the tree die-off would be much worse than it already is. If we dont' see something soon though, it looks like they will quickly start-up again.
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby unome » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:13 pm

HGX has an experimental lightning outlook that made it's appearance today, will be issued by 11 am, m-f - pretty cool

Image

"This is an experimental product. There is a low risk of lightning
occurring within the shaded area this afternoon and evening. This
means there is a chance of lightning within 5 miles of a point
within the risk area."
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby tireman4 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:22 pm

If that were only true...today or next week or the month of August....sigh
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby tireman4 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:15 pm

Man oh man. Why not us?


Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -97.03 Elev: 560
Last Update on Aug 11, 2:53 pm CDT

Mostly Cloudy

84 °F
(29 °C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: N 17 MPH
Barometer: 29.88" (1010.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 68 °F (20 °C)
Heat Index: 87 °F (31 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby hriverajr » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:59 pm

Very heavy thunderstorms here in Del Rio right now! :)
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby rnmm » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:19 pm

hriverajr wrote:Very heavy thunderstorms here in Del Rio right now! :)



So glad to hear!! That is awesome!!! :D Congrats!! Now can you send it to Galveston please?!?? :lol:
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:53 pm

hriverajr wrote:Very heavy thunderstorms here in Del Rio right now! :)


Hope the rain comes to us. ;)
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby hriverajr » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:55 pm

rnmm wrote:
hriverajr wrote:Very heavy thunderstorms here in Del Rio right now! :)



So glad to hear!! That is awesome!!! :D Congrats!! Now can you send it to Galveston please?!?? :lol:


Thanks.. we really need it.. last good rain was October of last year.. I say at least two inches and going up so far.. Storms are quasi stationary at moment over us..
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Re: August Weather Discussion

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:42 am

hriverajr wrote:
rnmm wrote:
hriverajr wrote:Very heavy thunderstorms here in Del Rio right now! :)



So glad to hear!! That is awesome!!! :D Congrats!! Now can you send it to Galveston please?!?? :lol:


Thanks.. we really need it.. last good rain was October of last year.. I say at least two inches and going up so far.. Storms are quasi stationary at moment over us..


Congrats on the rain... :mrgreen:

EARLIER CONVECTION FROM THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESULTED IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DEL
RIO...WHERE A NEW PRECIPITATION RECORDED OF 24 HOURS WAS SET WITH
4.47 INCHES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 2.76 INCHES SET BACK IN
1971.

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