June Ends - Hottest on Record

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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 24, 2011 6:52 am

I see this caught the eye of HGX this morning and the GFS does suggest a possible trough in the Gulf albeit weak. Maybe a bit of a pattern change finally?

THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND BEGINS TO TREK IT
WESTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS WARMER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS AND WEAKER WITH ANY UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THE UPPER PATTERN TRENDS AND IF IT MEANS A BREAK FOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 24, 2011 6:57 pm

The Euro continues to advertise a bit of a pattern change around the first of June with a mid level low traversing across the Gulf from FL. The GFS is not as impressed...
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05242011 12Z Euro GFS 500mb Compare.gif
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue May 24, 2011 9:48 pm

Hopefully, we see rain come June and the trend is a wetter June and summer. 8-) :twisted:
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 25, 2011 6:28 am

If the models are correct, a bonafide easterly summertime flow looks in the offing and may well bring seabreeze afternoon thundershowers. Fingers crossed for this pattern change as we transition into summer.
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 25, 2011 4:01 pm

A bit of a change today with the Euro. The 12Z run today suggests a mid/upper low will come NW out of the W Caribbean when it had shown that feature crossing FL heading W. That Upper Ridge looks mighty strong, so my hopes of a pattern change are somewhat tempered.

HPC:

THE PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BE MORE REMINISCENT OF JULY
THAN THE END OF MAY/BEGINNING OF JUNE....WHILE ACROSS THE WEST
SPRING/RAIN CHANCES EXTEND THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST AND TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S COMMONPLACE IN THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EARLY
ON...HIGHS BETWEEN 100 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN TEXAS BEFORE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXPANSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES VIRTUALLY
ELIMINATES THE THREAT OF DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MONDAY...PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OVER MEXICO WESTWARD AS WELL.
FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOUISIANA...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THIS PERIOD UNDER THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE TRACK FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PLAINS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD IN TANDEM INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES.
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

Attachments
05252011 12Z Euro 500mb Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 26, 2011 7:13 am

I'm cautiously optimistic regarding late next week with the Upper flow pattern. Even HGX has taken notice and the HPC does show troughing across the Caribbean...

BY THEN...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA. BOTH GENERALLY BRING A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...BOTH DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH THE GFS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH HIGHER LAYER MOISTURE
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...HELPS TO BRING AT LEAST SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY TO SE TX OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

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05262011 5dayfcst_wbg.gif
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby wxman57 » Thu May 26, 2011 9:49 am

10-day Euro is suggestive of rain on the lower TX coast, at least. But does the ridge over us break down enough to allow for any rain here? Canadian doesn't really agree with the Euro. GFS has a weak upper low moving out of the NW Caribbean into northern Mexico in 10 days, but it doesn't bring much rain to the TX coast.

I still suspect we may have to wait until August to get some significant rain.
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby tireman4 » Thu May 26, 2011 2:06 pm

Wxman57:

I still suspect we may have to wait until August to get some significant rain.


Holy Moly...that long....
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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 27, 2011 7:37 am

Nice to see the trends of a pattern change that continued overnight. We may finally be rid of that cap!

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TAKE PLACE
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER LEVELS BASICALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MS/OHIO VALLEYS BY
MONDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRATUS PATTERN...WITH MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AS WELL. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH THE 850-700
MB LAYER COOLING SOMEWHAT WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP.

EXPECT AN END TO THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...LIGHTER WINDS...AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMPENSATING
FOR THE COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

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Re: June- a new hope (maybe)

Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 27, 2011 10:27 am

srainhoutx wrote:Nice to see the trends of a pattern change that continued overnight. We may finally be rid of that cap!

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TAKE PLACE
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER LEVELS BASICALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MS/OHIO VALLEYS BY
MONDAY...THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRATUS PATTERN...WITH MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AS WELL. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH THE 850-700
MB LAYER COOLING SOMEWHAT WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP.

EXPECT AN END TO THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...LIGHTER WINDS...AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMPENSATING
FOR THE COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LEVEL. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.



Let's this is true. I am sick of that cockroach ridge. :evil:
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