More cold air on the way next week!?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby sleetstorm » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:20 am

Thank you, Mr. T., for all of that helpful data and clarity. So if anyone wants any oppotunity at all to feasibly see some snow or sleet mixed in with rain friday morning, here in SE Texas, do not wait until noon to get up because precipitation chances will be going down rather quickly as the day progresses. Right, Mr. T?
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:56 am

NWS receiving multiple reports of sleet falling in San Antonio as of 9:30 a.m.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:01 am

sleetstorm wrote:Thank you, Mr. T., for all of that helpful data and clarity. So if anyone wants any oppotunity at all to feasibly see some snow or sleet mixed in with rain friday morning, here in SE Texas, do not wait until noon to get up because precipitation chances will be going down rather quickly as the day progresses. Right, Mr. T?

Yes, that is correct. The NAM is a little slower moving everything out, but we should be dry as friday morning rolls through. Friday overnight is looking interesting.

Look at these differences between the 0z GFS at 6z friday and the 12z GFS at the same time:

OLD 0z GFS midnight friday:
Image

NEW 0z GFS midnight friday:
Image

Look how much lower thicknesses are across the area compared to the previous run. In a word, horrible, HORRIBLE handling of this upper air feature by the NAM and GFS. And yet, the NAM and GFS are STILL slightly warmer than the "European Trio"... Who wants to bet the 18z GFS and NAM come in colder still?


I'm not sure why the NAM and GFS have been completely clueless with this system, while the European Trio (ECMWF, UKMET, CMC) have latched onto this idea of some winter precip over the area since two days ago... I'm also not sure why everyone has been ignoring the model consensus and going with the warmer outlier GFS (which it still slightly is). It's time for the NWS to wake up
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby don » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:06 am

Hmm does make you wonder if we could possibly have another "suprise" snow event? similar to december 2008...
Last edited by don on Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby HannahMontana » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:07 am

It's snowing at Randolph Air Force Base in the Schertz area, which is a NE suburb of SA.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby redneckweather » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:13 am

I see that when wxman runs his maps, they are all off of GFS data. Why is that wxman? I hardly ever see you post data off of other models. I'm guessing you like the GFS a lot more than others this time of year?
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:14 am

don wrote:Hmm does make you wonder if we could possibly have anothe "suprise" snow event? similar to december 2008...

I'm not sure if surface temperatures will cool sufficiently to allow accumulation, or if the precipiation will be heavy enough, but I do think we stand a chance to see some snow tommorow night just as the precipiation ends and heads eastward.

This isn't really that much of a "suprise", as it is forecasters following an outlier model for whatever reason.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:15 am

Update from HGX:

WILL BE ASSESSING THE CHC OF A POSSIBLE RA/SN/IP MIX ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING
WITH THE AFT FCST PACKAGE. 33

I think the threat extends into the Metro area, but at least they are finally saying something.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:28 am

San Marcos is now seeing a sleet and snow mix! Thanks for the heads up, Hannah Montana ;)
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby txsnowmaker » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:29 am

The 12z shows the freezing line clearing the Houston area for hours 114-168. Unfortunately, I don't see that there is precip indicated anywhere nearby, at least in this model and in this run. Anyone seeing indications from other models/sources that they could be off regarding chances for precip during this timeframe next week?
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