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More cold air on the way next week!?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:03 pm

sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?


Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:21 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Lets set a realistic, but not too easy target for ourselves, and forget about Houston and maybe a few pellets or flakes in all the rain, but instead follow instead whether winter weather can cancel school this week for the DISD.



Maybe a bit further S than Dallas Ed. Del Rio to Austin to College Station to Huntsville to Lufkin and points N may very well get in on the action IMHO. Anything S would be icing on the cake at this point IMHO...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010


...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/09 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A
GRADUAL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO
ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME
RANGE. PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE WAVE CROSSING
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MANY WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WINTER ULTIMATELY TRACKING LESS SUPPRESSED
THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY PROG. THE MANUAL PROGS INDICATE SNOW
AND ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE WEEK
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE ROCKIES. FRONTS ARE EXPECT TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH LESS ENERGY DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA.


FINAL...

THE 12Z/09 GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH THE GULF WAVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...SO BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC...LIFTING A DEEP CENTER A
GOOD BIT OF THE WAY TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
TREND TO WATCH...WITH LARGE IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN
TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...STUCK WITH THE EARLIER BLEND
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...RULING THE GEM GLOBAL AS AN
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST DAY 6.


CISCO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby harpman » Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:50 pm

Local mets are giving us a decent chance of sleet/snow/rain/mix in the New Orleans area Thursday night into Friday.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby Mr. T » Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:47 pm

At 72 hours (day 3), the 12z GFS is by far the warmest in the upper levels of any global model. Why HGX is following it the closest, I have no idea, but I think at least areas north of Conroe will see some snow by friday morning... The 12z CMC and UKMET like this idea. I cannot see Euro QPF maps, but it looks closer to the CMC and UKMET than the warm GFS.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived maybe wintry precip too?

Postby TxLady » Tue Feb 09, 2010 3:49 pm

redneckweather wrote:Just got back from Leakey yesterday.


Completely O.T.: redneckweather, have you ever driven the "3 Sisters" drive, in/around, Leakey? I had lunch in Leakey, back in July...a little family-owned place...quite tasty! :)
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby sleetstorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 5:18 pm

Portastorm wrote:
sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?


Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.


That was not the way that is was during last December fourth's snowstorm or December tenth of 2008? So what is different about this time?
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby sleetstorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 5:23 pm

The wave of low pressure that generated the snowstorm of December tenth 2008 was completely over land.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:02 pm

This passing feature doesn't have nearly the cold air aloft that the December 2008 feature did. As the wave approaches, south and southeasterly winds in the lower levels (just above the surface) will advect warmer air aloft. Too warm for any significant winter precip here. Once the low/wave axis passes, the air aloft will cool. But the moisture will decrease very quickly after the low passes.

So, for Houston, lots (and lots) of cold miserable rain from tomorrow evening through late Thursday night, possibly mixed with a few sleet pellets at times.

But winter isn't over. Long-range guidance suggests some very cold air moving south out of Canada late next week, and that cold pattern may persist for a while. The southern stream will probably remain active. It's just a matter of timing as far as any future winter precip chances here this month.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:04 pm

sleetstorm wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
sleetstorm wrote:Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?


Sleet, it will be pumping warm gulf air over our heads ... and slowly but surely working its way down to the surface so that the entire air column is saturated.


That was not the way that is was during last December fourth's snowstorm or December tenth of 2008? So what is different about this time?


The difference is in the vertical profile of the atmosphere over Houston ahead of each feature. The air aloft was significantly colder ahead of the 2008 system, enough so that the low-level warm advection wasn't enough to bring the air column aloft above freezing.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Postby C2G » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:49 pm

Great, more cold, cloudy, wet weather.
I have never wanted spring and summer as much as this year.
You know it would be almost tolerable with a snowflake now and then..........but noooooo.
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