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NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:41 am

A large area of rain and a few thunderstorms moving across SE TX will make for a messy Friday morning commute. In addition temps are in the 50s across much of the area with gusty N winds. The rain will gradually move out of SE TX this afternoon as the temps continue to gradually lower. Expect lows in the 40s tonight and Saturday night with highs in the 50s. A Small Craft Advisory Galveston and Matagorda Bay’s and Gale Warning’s for the offshore from 10AM today until 10AM Saturday. ain returns Sunday into Monday with even colder temps next week. From the Houston-Galveston NWS:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

More rain is expected Sunday and Monday as an area of low pressure moves up the coast. A strong cold front will cross the coast on Monday and bring some of the coldest air of the autumn into Southeast Texas. Low temperatures could fall into the 30`s on Tuesday morning but temperatures could fall into the 20`s on Wednesday morning, especially Northeast of a madisonville to Conroe to Liberty line.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wt Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Cromagnum » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:26 am

This was made out to be a bad storm last night on the news and "one of the worst commutes" but this looks like it's already about blown through.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wet Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:26 am

Drier air is filtering in as cold air advection continue throughout the day. I don't see much of a chance of breaks in the clouds throughout the weekend, but we likely will have a 36 hour break in any measureable rainfall before a Coastal Low develops near Brownsville Saturday afternoon/evening and begins to move up the Texas Gulf Coast into Sunday/early Monday as the very strong Artic Front marches across Texas and off the Coast early Tuesday Morning.

Saturday night into Sunday looks wet and potentially stormy with some elevated low topped thunderstorms possible along and N of a warm front close to the Coast. Thunderstorms could become more numerous along that warm frontal boundary across our Coastal tier of Counties and Offshore. Gale Warnings will continue into tomorrow morning across the offshore waters with wind advisories along the Coast. The remain some uncertainty in the exact track of that Coastal Low, so higher rainfall totals of near 2 inches + are possible where the heaviest rainfall develop and storms may train.

Sunday into Monday night may bring a bout of heavy snow across the Panhandle and lighter amounts possible for locations on East toward N Central Texas. The may be a brief shot of rain/snow mix across the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex into the Piney Woods of NE Texas before much drier Artic air arrives Monday ending all rain chance by Tuesday.

Very cold temperatures are expected for mid November early to mid next week. The shot of cold modified Artic Air is rather deep and freezing temperatures are expected up to 850mb or about a mile up. Early morning low temperature reading may flirt with the upper 20's to low 30's Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. The overnight ECMWF suggested a chilly 32F for IAH and upper 20's in Conroe. I will not be surprised to see a light freeze and possibly frost Wednesday morning and possibly Thursday morning IF we get completely clear skies across the Region. The old sub tropical jet may have an area of high to mid levels clouds streaming across the Area that could prevent temperatures from fully bottoming out in ideal radiational cooling. Stay Tuned!
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wet Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby tireman4 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:35 am

HGX Outlook
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wet Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Electric Lizard » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:42 pm

The clouds have broken nicely up here in Washington County. It's partly cloudy now. Still very windy though.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wet Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:47 pm

The 18z NAM is wild.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wet Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:26 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The 18z NAM is wild.


It's the NAM :lol:
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Wet Weekend/Colder Next Week

Postby Belmer » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:26 am

Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Day 2 Outlook (Sunday) with a Marginal chance of thunderstorms that will extend into early Monday AM. As the surface low develops along the TX coast and moves NE, areas right along the coast could go from the mid 50s by the afternoon to the upper 60s/low 70s near midnight providing a chance for some supercells to develop along the coast in a very moist unstable air mass.


Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Fri Nov 09 2018

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TX COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop along the upper Texas coast
Sunday night.

...Upper TX Coast...

Late-evening water vapor imagery depicts a split flow regime over
the western US with a distinct southern current extending across the
southern Baja Peninsula into northern Mexico. As upper ridging
builds north along the Pacific coast it appears a weak disturbance
will eject northeast within the southern current toward
south-central TX late in the day2 period. This feature is expected
to induce a weak surface low over the western Gulf Basin that should
lift north toward the middle TX coast during the latter half of the
period. While 10/00z short-range models suggest maritime tropical
air mass will struggle to advance inland, there is some concern that
portions of the middle-upper TX coast may have boundary-layer
recovery such that surface-based buoyancy will evolve ahead of the
short wave. Forecast soundings from near Palacios to Galveston
exhibit substantial SBCAPE with near 70 dew points. There is some
concern that a few supercells could evolve after midnight within a
strengthening warm advection regime. If mT air mass does advance
inland then the risk of severe wind gusts or even a tornado will
increase with any supercell development.
However, this risk should
be limited to the immediate coastal portions of the upper TX coastal
region.


...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None

..Darrow.. 11/10/2018

Image


As the surface low ejects NE, it will bring in some very chilly temperatures for this time of the year. High temperatures Monday & Tuesday may be in the upper 40s with lows Tuesday and Wednesday being near freezing... especially along and north of I-10 where places up near Conroe and Madisonville could fall to the upper 20s for a couple hours.

General thinking is much of next week should remain dry... however, NAM is probably being a little bullish providing mischief out in west/central parts of TX as it suggest another robust trough digs in late Monday night into Tuesday morning giving enough lift to produce overrunning... but not buying that solution as moisture will probably be pretty starved. Though, we shall see.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Raw WX/Freeze Possible Wednesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:29 pm

Light rain currently falling in NW Harris County. This batch of extremely light precipitation should move on ENE and be out of the Region within the hour or so. Some light precipitation will likely develop in the very early hour tomorrow morning and continue throughout the day into tomorrow evening. A Coastal trough is attempting to develop near S Padre Island this afternoon and the current thinking is a Coastal Low will develop Sunday afternoon and move toward Matagorda Bay and on up to just S of DT Houston late tomorrow night into the early hours of Monday morning. The anticipated Strong Artic Front will be in the Panhandle around midday tomorrow and Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for portions of Central and Northern New Mexico as well as portions of the Panhandle (Amarillo) where 4 to 6 inches of snow may be possible. A mixture of snow/freezing rain and just a cold rain look to spread into portions of West Texas near the Davis Mountains and into the Northern Permian Basin. A wintry mix may be possible from Vernon to Wichita Falls and possibly just NW of Dallas/Ft Worth before much drier air arrives Monday morning.

Freeze Warnings are likely Tuesday into Wednesday for portions of SE Texas mainly for areas along and N of I-10, but we need to monitor the trends as the Global Ensembles are running a good 3 to 5 degrees colder that the operational model output. Freezing temperatures are likely for Beaumont and Lake Charles as well.

The rest of the week looks chilly with some moderation Thursday and Friday, but another reinforcing shot of cold air arrives next weekend. At this time the next weekend cold air appears less strong than the Artic Front arriving Monday.
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11102018 1820Z Valid Monday 12Z 98fndfd_init_2018111012.gif
11102018 18Z 2 Day QPF d12_fill.gif
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Chilly Raw WX/Freeze Possible Wednesday

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:26 am

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms this afternoon and into the overnight hours for all of SE Texas. The primary risk will be hail in any elevated thunderstorms that could develop in the cold sector away from the Coast with a possibility of an isolated tornado in the warm sector along the Coast from near Freeport to Galveston and High Island to Port Arthur possibly extending to Lake Charles. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding just how close to the Coast the warm front may creep N and the exact track of the surface Coastal Low that is organizing along S Padre Island this morning where a Coastal trough is evident on Brownsville Radar. Keep a close eye on the weather as the day progresses. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the sensible weather the next 12 to 24 hours regarding any severe potential.

The next item will be what happens after the very strong cold front passes Monday Morning and whether the cold upper trough actually sweeps across Texas Monday into Tuesday. Once again there is some uncertainty as the European model suggest the upper trough holds to our SW bringing high clouds across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian are progressive with that cold upper trough and completely clear us out setting up ideal radiational cooling conditions and potentially a Hard Freeze to the N and NE of Metro Houston. Freezing temperatures are possible into Metro Houston and the colder suburbs possibly Tuesday and especially Wednesday mornings. Freeze Warnings may be regarded Tuesday afternoon, if not earlier.

I want to mention that the past several cycles of the NAM suggest the possibility of sleet near College Station and on E well N of Metro Houston Monday afternoon and evening. The NAM is attempting to close off a very cold Upper Low to our SW and throws some moisture over a very cold dome at the surface suggesting some wintry mischief Monday night into Tuesday just inland from the Coast from near Corpus Christi on NE. That solution is an outlier at this time, but HGX did mention it in there morning Area Forecast Discussion but did not bite on that scenario at this time.
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11112018 HGX DruFRWTUUAAoNsN.jpg
11112018 13Z SPC Day 1 day1otlk_20181111_1300_prt.gif
11112018 13Z Torn day1probotlk_20181111_1300_torn_prt.gif
11112018 3Z Hail day1probotlk_20181111_1300_hail_prt.gif
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