OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Seantx81 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:29 am

I’ve been watching weather channel since last night. I was surprised to hear their “experts” say it wouldn’t strengthen anymore while pressures were still falling. Now Michael is stronger today and pressures are still dropping. It’s crazy’s to think that based on the wind chart above some structures will not survive.
I keep losing my usernames. Formerly vertigoss/seanatsk.

Survived Ike in Katy, Harvey in Dickinson and Allison in my car.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:34 am

Hurricane Michael continues to strengthen just offshore. Up to 150MPH

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph
(101 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:15 am

Prayers to all who are in the path of this strong CAT 4 cane
Wont be surprised if he goes Cat 5 for a blip or two not that it matters
Panama City will be wracked - much like our Rockport and other cities by Harvey.

that some people are STILL there is always so mind numbing to me.
They've never experienced a Cat 4 before in this area and you can bet
responders will have to put their lives at risk to same some of them.
And in the end we will hear:

"I didn't think it would be this bad" or "I'll never do that again."
or "I stayed because of my pets"

So over it.

Michael will then go into Georgia as a Cat 2.

I wish all well.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:40 am

Good chance it's a cat 5 now with the pressures sub 920. Lots of folks didn't leave because they expected this to be "just a cat 2 or 3"
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby mcheer23 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:04 pm

Michael may very well be at Category 5 intensity in the northeast part of the eyewall right now.
Pressure down to 919...unreal.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby mcheer23 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:42 pm

155 mph...at landfall.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:55 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:Prayers to all who are in the path of this strong CAT 4 cane
Wont be surprised if he goes Cat 5 for a blip or two not that it matters
Panama City will be wracked - much like our Rockport and other cities by Harvey.

that some people are STILL there is always so mind numbing to me.
They've never experienced a Cat 4 before in this area and you can bet
responders will have to put their lives at risk to same some of them.
And in the end we will hear:

"I didn't think it would be this bad" or "I'll never do that again."
or "I stayed because of my pets"

So over it.

Michael will then go into Georgia as a Cat 2.

I wish all well.


1 mph short of a CAT 5 (155 mph). Mexico Beach with devastating surge and damage.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:21 pm

This upcoming front doesn’t really appear to be cooling off SETX very much according to the Euro. It has us at near normal or slightly above normal temps for next week.

Image
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:03 pm

Devastating disaster - Mexico Beach.
One fatality so far.
I'm sure there will be more when all is said and done.
Very sad situation over there.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:14 pm

Michael is more intense than the most intense Texas hurricane, the 1886 Indianola Hurricane. It had a central pressure of 925 millibars. :shock: :o
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