OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:57 pm

Breaking: Michael now a Major Cat 3 Hurricane...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cromagnum » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:00 pm

Pretty good line headed our way. Almost as if mother nature is angry at all this hot and humid weather that overstayed it's welcome.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:22 pm

ANYONE WANNA comment on that blob in the carib with 20% chance of development?
Looks like going westward so it could be a CA hit? Belize?
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cpv17 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:58 pm

Geez, Montgomery County is getting a deluge now. I’m jealous lol
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby unome » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:59 pm

Michael is blowing up (again), almost cat 4 already - 110 kts, 950mb**

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

http://hurricanecity.com/models/archive ... _Track.txt

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

** they edited BestTrack - now 949mb
Last edited by unome on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby TexasBreeze » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:05 pm

This system is producing some extremely cold cloud tops and recon flight level readings of 130kts. Maybe a high end cat 4 or more at landfall if it keeps strengthening???
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:10 pm

TexasBreeze wrote:This system is producing some extremely cold cloud tops and recon flight level readings of 130kts. Maybe a high end cat 4 or more at landfall if it keeps strengthening???


just kept thinking it may go 4
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:11 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Pretty good line headed our way. Almost as if mother nature is angry at all this hot and humid weather that overstayed it's welcome.


Montgomery County under a flash flood warning
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:13 pm

Very likely Michael may reach CAT 4 before landfall and may strengthen further. I heard that Bay County locals did not heed Local Officials warning to evacuate. I pray this is not true and folks took the dire warnings seriously.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:24 pm

Showers and thunderstorms are weakening as they move across the Houston area tonight however some heavy very rains have occurred across some areas. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for SW Montgomery and NW Harris County until 10:30PM.
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