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OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cpv17 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:17 pm

I don’t really know what to think of it, but kind of out of nowhere the 12z GFS has a lot of rain for western parts of the viewing area next weekend.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I don’t really know what to think of it, but kind of out of nowhere the 12z GFS has a lot of rain for western parts of the viewing area next weekend.


Hmmm...I'm salivating for a potential week of NW flow and a crisp weekend. It may be just the front. Don't mess this up!

I see it now - the fly in the ointment is moisture from a Pacific hurricane that lands ashore in Mexico. haha It will probably evaporate in the next GFS run! Having said that I noticed the Euro brings the storm ashore on the same spot in the Baja Peninsula.

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:lol: At least I enjoyed a few more days of green grass. However, 4 inches from rain in a week washed away the fungicide and with a damp soil the brown patch has started already...and without even any cool nights yet. Put down another bolus of fungicide this am. Texas lawn and gardening - it is not for the weak of heart!
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:28 pm

EPAC Hurricane Sergio and its remnants likely will be a wildcard regarding our sensible weather next weekend as it merges with that Fall Cold Front. Over running clouds and possibly mid/upper level moisture and strong fronts can lead to rainfall after the front passes giving us cool and gloomy weather we often see in Fall and in Winter.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:57 pm

srainhoutx wrote:EPAC Hurricane Sergio and its remnants likely will be a wildcard regarding our sensible weather next weekend as it merges with that Fall Cold Front. Over running clouds and possibly mid/upper level moisture and strong fronts can lead to rainfall after the front passes giving us cool and gloomy weather we often see in Fall and in Winter.


Yeah, a dreary mid level moisture weekend on tap in a week. A real shame, because Friday's front would have been pretty bone dry otherwise.

Sergio is currently a major EPAC fish storm poised to take a turn NE and weaken. It certainly would be in position to ruin next weekend's BBQs and other outdoor activities.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?cone#contents

Go away.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cpv17 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:09 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:EPAC Hurricane Sergio and its remnants likely will be a wildcard regarding our sensible weather next weekend as it merges with that Fall Cold Front. Over running clouds and possibly mid/upper level moisture and strong fronts can lead to rainfall after the front passes giving us cool and gloomy weather we often see in Fall and in Winter.


Yeah, a dreary mid level moisture weekend on tap in a week. A real shame, because Friday's front would have been pretty bone dry otherwise.

Sergio is currently a major EPAC fish storm poised to take a turn NE and weaken. It certainly would be posed to ruin next weekend's BBQs and other outdoor activities.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?cone#contents

Go away.


Sometimes these EPAC storms can cause copious amounts of rainfall in Texas when they go into Mexico like that so it’s just something to keep an eye on.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:50 pm

Advisories from the NHC have been issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone #14 in the NW Caribbean Sea.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS GETTING BETTER DEFINED, AND THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT
WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO CALL IT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, CURRENT
INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 H AND
COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE NEED FOR
WARNINGS AND WATCHES IN THESE AREAS, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED
ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 H. IN ADDITION, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER, WHICH IS
LIKELY TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN THE LOWER PART OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 H, AND THEN
SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF DEVELOPMENT FROM 48-96 H WHEN THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND
OF THE IVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

FOR THE FIRST 24-48 H, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTER THAT TIME, A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 96 H. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A NEARLY 300 N MI CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THE 96-H POINT. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN:

1. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, WESTERN CUBA, AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

2. THE SYSTEM COULD BRING STORM SURGE, RAINFALL, AND WIND IMPACTS TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECIFY THE EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:15 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:EPAC Hurricane Sergio and its remnants likely will be a wildcard regarding our sensible weather next weekend as it merges with that Fall Cold Front. Over running clouds and possibly mid/upper level moisture and strong fronts can lead to rainfall after the front passes giving us cool and gloomy weather we often see in Fall and in Winter.


Yeah, a dreary mid level moisture weekend on tap in a week. A real shame, because Friday's front would have been pretty bone dry otherwise.

Sergio is currently a major EPAC fish storm poised to take a turn NE and weaken. It certainly would be posed to ruin next weekend's BBQs and other outdoor activities.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?cone#contents

Go away.


Sometimes these EPAC storms can cause copious amounts of rainfall in Texas when they go into Mexico like that so it’s just something to keep an eye on.



Absolutely. Especially this time of year. If that moisture is caught up in a front or the SJT, there is significant potential for entraining.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:05 am

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael. SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Cromagnum » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:35 am

Bring on the freezing cold weather. I've had enough of this miserable summer already. I dont want to thaw out until next May.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Tracking The Tropics/Fall Cold Front

Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:31 pm

EURO
Image

UKMET
Image

GFS
Image

EURO and UKMET have Michael as a hurricane with 950 millibars.
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