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OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:55 pm

The cold front caught up just in time. We had some impressive swirling winds for a couple of minutes. The squall line forming along the front should have those straight line winds but rotation should ease. Fingers crossed.


Fresh northerly breeze now and steady rain.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:10 pm

Next storm system coming in around Sunday/Monday could be even stronger than the current one. I have to think the above average sst’s in the western Gulf are helping to aid this.

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby Belmer » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:11 pm

Nice break right now... if you have any kiddos, I'd get them out in the next hour or so to try and salvage the little bit of Halloween they can enjoy.

Think the largest tornado threat may be over... however, latest HRRR suggest that the line out west may still be trying to line itself out as it pushes through Houston. Last few runs are showing a few more discreet supercells developing ahead of the cold front later this evening. Certainly don't want to let our guard down.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:17 pm

That Chappell Hill cell could still rotate...but overall the worst is over.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby unome » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:22 pm

still looks ugly to me

Image

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md1604.html

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby Belmer » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:23 pm

EoA: 22z HRRR -

Black circles in image are areas where HRRR is starting to initialize discreet supercells develop ahead and along squall line upon frontal passage.
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22z HRRR
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Last edited by Belmer on Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:24 pm

Front has passed Brenham. Look for the front to arrive in NW Harris County within the hour and nearing Sugarland by 9 PM
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby unome » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:32 pm

NWS Houston re-tweet - video from earlier, NW of Katy

https://twitter.com/baldbear87/status/1 ... 0200145920
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:46 pm

HGX cancels Tornado Watch for Brazos, Burleson, Houston, Madison Counties. Tornado Watch continues for other Counties in SE Texas
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:47 pm

unome wrote:still looks ugly to me

Image

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md1604.html

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759


Huge meso forming north of Beaumont.

Some of those mini-cells ahead of the squall line could spin up something weak.
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