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OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:38 pm

Latest CPC 6-10 day forecast has cut back on our above average rainfall chances compared to yesterday. I doubt it means much though. These forecast are constantly changing, but one thing that hasn’t been changing is its predictions of above average rainfall and cooler temps for Texas.

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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby spadilly » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:56 pm

Looks like (at this point) Sunday will be the better day to be out at Wings Over Houston this weekend.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby BlueJay » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:39 pm

2018 has been a wet year.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:05 pm

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Near Marble Falls. :shock: :o
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:41 am

Another day similar to yesterday with slight warmer temps and a 30% chance of showers. Radar this morning shows an area of rain N and NE of Houston moving N toward E TX.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby djmike » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:03 am

Awesome 56 degrees this morning here in Beaumont! Not too cold and not too hot! High of 67 as the day progresses. Rain currently moving out this morning but unfortunately the clouds and overcast will remain throughout the day. Another moderate but short lived front scheduled for Saturday. Low 50 for lows and mid 60s for highs. What more can you ask for? ...well, a little sunshine to go along with it. Enjoy Beaumont/SETX!
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby unome » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:30 am

what causes the spikes on radar & why is it more pronounced on some radars

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/us3comphtml5.html
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/radarchive/

***HGX looks particularly "spikey"

*** HGX later addressed this on their Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 1970565121

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Last edited by unome on Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby tireman4 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:13 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181515
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1015 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Visible satellite imagery is showing some thinning of clouds.
Could the sun really come out today? Maybe so as it looks like the
thinning of the clouds may be due to some drier air in the
boundary layer that mesoanalyses are not resolving well. Based on
this drier air, rain chances have been updated today with higher
chances off to the SW of a Galveston to Katy line and 20/30 PoPs
NE of that line. Temperatures today look on track but if the sun
does shine through the breaks in clouds then we could get a little
warmer than forecast so look for more adjustments to the forecast
over the next few hours.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...
Impact of drier air mentioned above will be to have MVFR ceilings
become VFR sooner than expected and VFR conditions expected for
much of the afternoon. Ceilings should still develop overnight
with another push of moisture and increase in shower activity.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

AVIATION...
Anticipating gradually improving conditions today as ceilings
continue to slowly lift. Areas of RA/SHRA that are going on now
could persist, but currently think most of the activity will
become isolated by the afternoon. Activity this evening and on
through the overnight hours tomorrow could end up depending on
how much develops near the coast and down south and gradually
works its way into our area. Forecast confidence remains low. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A similar active weather pattern remains in place for the second
half of this week, but the heaviest rain is generally expected to
be lower on the Gulf Coast, slide up to the west of our area, then
curl around north of us. This carves out an area of relatively
lighter rain expected for our area, but with potentially heavy
rain possible not far from us, we`ll want to keep a close eye on
conditions. A front this weekend will give us a brief respite, but
look for rain chances to return again next week as winds become
onshore ahead of another front in the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Low clouds blanket Southeast Texas again tonight, though satellite
indicates that there is more vertical growth over our area
compared to 24 hours again. Consequently, radar shows some drizzle
and light showers, with the strongest cells over Harris and
Liberty counties. Even here, rain rates are not very significant,
with accumulations generally in the 0.1-0.25 inch range over the
past three hours.

Perhaps most importantly for the early forecast is a weak surface
trough located over the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas and
Mexico, reaching northward to roughly Matagorda Bay. It will
slowly drift towards the coast today, and will eventually become
an important piece of the puzzle.

But...until then...look for the current band of light showers to
slowly make its way up to the northwest through the morning,
exiting our area around mid-day or early afternoon. In the
meantime, showers and storms will continue to increase over the
Gulf, particularly off of Matagorda Bay. Skies will remain
overcast for most, though a few breaks here and there could break
through this afternoon around and east of I-45. This should help
high temperatures drift up another few degrees over the day
before.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The Gulf surface trough will continue to drift towards the coast
through the rest of the short term forecast, and rains - at times
heavy - will continue along the coast, but mostly to the south and
west of our area. If anyone is going to see heavier rain, the best
shot would be down around Matagorda Bay. That said, the 00Z
Canadian does paint a somewhat different scenario. Rather than
come onshore with the heaviest rains down towards Corpus Christi,
it does this more around Matagorda Bay, and then scrapes the
heavier rain right up our area, just a bit west of Houston,
rather than farther to the west over Central Texas. I think the
lighter rainfall scenario is much more likely, but the CMC does
indicate that we can`t sleep on the next few days, either.

This is a setup in which widespread rain is not terribly high,
but in such a moist environment with relative weak steering flow,
isolated totals could get quite high. Indeed, the TTU WRF has
accumulated totals through Saturday in excess of 5 inches over the
Gulf off of Corpus, while the highest totals out of HREF members
over the water are in the 10-15 inch range. In short...while I
don`t expect anyone to see a foot of rain, I also can`t entirely
rule out that a spot in, say, Jackson or Matagorda County might
see significant amounts of rain. It may not be to the point that
you go to Plan B for the weekend right now, but it would be a
very good idea to have a backup plan ready to go...just in case.

Friday should be warmer, with spots up around College Station
and Crockett reaching to around 70 degrees, while 80 degrees could
be seen right on the coast. Saturday`s temperatures will depend
strongly on the timing of a cold front. For now, the forecast is
for the front to come through early enough to keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. But...delay that front
by a few hours, and we should see at least a repeat of Friday`s
temperatures, and could even get warmer.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The front should be pretty effective at scouring out deep
moisture, with precipitable water for most of the area falling
around or below one inch. The exception would be in the southwest
nearer Matagorda Bay, which may hold on to more moisture. At the
surface, dewpoints look to fall into the mid-40s in Houston
County on Sunday and to around 60 degrees around Palacios. As you
would expect, rain chances should then also largely diminish
Saturday night through Sunday night.

This respite from our current active pattern will be brief,
however. Flow should turn back to onshore early next week ahead of
a midweek front. Along with that, rain chances will come back up.
Lots of details to be worked out here, and will probably heavily
influence the details of our weather next week. Some of this
depends on tropical activity in the East Pacific. For example -
the GFS sucks up the remnants of a tropical cyclone through
Mexico, and helps fuel the deepening of a low that forms over West
Texas and ejects to the northwest, bringing a fairly robust cold
front through Southeast Texas. The Euro is more diffuse with this
idea - it still develops a weak trough and moves it along this
track, but the stronger low comes just off the coast, and scrapes
over our Gulf waters with some significant rainfall. Either way,
pretty good confidence that temperatures will be held in check
deeper into next week, but less confidence in potential for
heavier rainfall and/or severe weather. As SPC so lovingly puts
it, "Predictability Too Low".

MARINE...

Moderate to strong northeast to east winds, elevated seas
and the potential for dangerous rip currents should
persist through the end of the week as the pressure
gradient remains tight, and over the weekend with the
passage of another cold front. Caution flags and/or Small
Craft Advisories will continue to be needed, and Coastal
Flood Advisories will be possible for occasionally
elevated water levels around high tide times. Expect to
see periods of rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms,
mainly through Saturday night. 42

HYDROLOGY...

Barring enough rainfall to raise levels again, Bedias Creek is at
flood stage and will continue to fall. Riverside is around its
crest in moderate flood stage, and (again barring more significant
rainfall) should begin falling today. Unfortunately, it should
take several days before it comes out of flood.

On the downside, Gages are rising on the Trinity River downstream
of Lake Livingston. Goodrich is in moderate flood, and is expected
to slowly, but steadily rise into major flood. Liberty is in a
similar situation. Romayor and Moss Bluff are not yet in flood
stage, but is rising and is expected to reach near (Romayor) or
over (Moss Bluff) flood stage in the next day or two. Future rises
at all of these sites will depend not just on rainfall, but on
water that will be routed downstream from upper portions of the
river and Lake Livingston.

CLIMATE...

For the second day in a row, College Station and both Houston
climate sites (Bush and Hobby) have set record cold maximum
temperatures. Today, we should see temperatures rise enough at
Houston (and today`s record cold max takes a dive) that those two
records should be safe, even though temps still look a good 5-10
degrees below normal. College Station, however, may be a closer
call. Explicitly, CLL has a forecast high of 64 with a record of
60. However, it`s close enough with potential rain that rising
above that 60 degree benchmark is not a sure thing. We should
break the record string today, but we may still be watching the
College Station thermometer intently.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 59 71 58 68 / 70 40 50 50 50
Houston (IAH) 72 63 78 64 73 / 30 20 50 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 75 73 79 72 76 / 30 40 60 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...39
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:40 am

Rain and thunderstorms moving onshore along the Middle TX Coast this morning. A 40% chance of rain across the Houston-Galveston areas today along with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday still looks to be partly sunny with highs in the low 70s behind the next cool front.
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Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby snowman65 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:30 am

Weather is SO confusing...1 week they say its shaping up to be a much colder winter for our area, and they've been saying that...then you wake up one day (this morning) and they say it's going to be warmer than average winter.....maybe I just dont understand weather anymore...
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