OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:05 am

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an unsettled and changeable weather pattern developing this weekend extending into next week. EPAC TS Sergio moved inland over the Central Baja Peninsula this morning and is moving rapidly ENE caught up in a deep Western Upper Trough. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook suggest a Slight to Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall well to the N of SE Texas extending from Northern Mexico to Southern New Mexico, portions of the Panhandle/Permian Basin into N Central Texas and Southern Oklahoma over the next couple of days. A strong shortwave trough is diving SE out Alberta Canada this morning and that is where our First Fall Cold Front is organizing. As the remnants of Sergio move ENE to NE on Sunday, the Cold Front enters the Southern Rockies and the Southern Plains and continues to push S Sunday night/Monday morning and off the Coast during the Monday. Snow, some heavy develops over the higher elevations of the Southern Rockies and the Denver Area Sunday. Snow will continue to develop in the Panhandle and possible mixing with some rain in portions of the Permian Basin. This Cold Front will be very shallow with cold air trapped well below 850mb or about a mile up. The coldest air likely will only extend upward to about 1500 to 2000 ft and with a strong sub tropical jet flow over Texas, over running light rain and drizzle appears likely Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday possibly extending into late next week. The fly in the ointment is an area of low pressure developing at the tail end of the front in the Western Gulf and a Coastal trough of low pressure. We'll need to monitor and "fine tune" the sensible weather forecast early next week as we get a bit closer to that time frame. Some chilly air is coming, but appears we will not dry out behind the front.
Attachments
10122018 09Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
10122018 03Z Day 4 Surface Chart 9khwbg_conus.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17895
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:08 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Amplified upper air pattern post Michael and on the backside of approaching TS Sergio into Baja will drive a strong cold front across TX on Monday. This will be a significant cold front with strong cold air advection.

Remains of Sergio will move across TX today into Saturday with widespread rainfall focusing mainly across north Texas. Lower pressures with this feature will result in a return of onshore flow over SE TX and a rise in moisture and humidity levels this weekend.

Strong front will begin to surge down the plains on Sunday as the remains of Sergio depart to the east and this front will arrive into TX Sunday night and blast off the coast sometime on Monday. Strong cold air advection will onset post front with temperatures rapidly falling behind the front. Temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 60’s behind the front and maybe even the upper 50’s during the day on Monday. Frontal slope is shallow (only around 2000-3000ft thick and SW winds above that layer will bring moisture back over the surface cool dome resulting in cloudy conditions with periods of rain Tuesday-Thursday. Cold air advection coupled with clouds and rain will keep temperatures cool to cold during this period with lows in the 50’s and highs possibly only near 60. Gusty north winds will make it feel much colder.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17895
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Cromagnum » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:45 am

Can't wait. Bye summer.
Cromagnum
 
Posts: 374
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:42 pm

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:41 pm

There are growing indications that cooler weather will continue into late October. It appears that the next couple of days will end our Summer like pattern as the days grow shorter and Fall fully arrives.
Attachments
WK34temp(2).gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17895
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:51 pm

srainhoutx wrote:There are growing indications that cooler weather will continue into late October. It appears that the next couple of days will end our Summer like pattern as the days grow shorter and Fall fully arrives.


Surge in the DP this afternoon. The morning and midday felt great though.

Sergio moisture and noisy SJT will give us brisk, overrunning conditions all next week. Hoping for some sun after that.

Clouds may abate next Saturday (10/20) with not rain on the long-term through the end of the month while remaining cooler than normal...as will the eastern half of the country.

Image

The Canadian if anything is even more robust in cool temps. They are more optimistic for rain breaking up on Thursday, instead of Saturday. We'll see.
User avatar
DoctorMu
 
Posts: 1316
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:17 pm

Our SE Texas neighbor shared his decade + experience flying as 53rd Reservist. These images were taken as Michael made landfall. The flight was extremely turbulent and the Eyewall was more like a "gun barrel" than a Stadium.
Attachments
1495_1539301913596.jpeg
1497_1539302030346.jpeg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17895
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Cpv17 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:58 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:There are growing indications that cooler weather will continue into late October. It appears that the next couple of days will end our Summer like pattern as the days grow shorter and Fall fully arrives.


Surge in the DP this afternoon. The morning and midday felt great though.

Sergio moisture and noisy SJT will give us brisk, overrunning conditions all next week. Hoping for some sun after that.

Clouds may abate next Saturday (10/20) with not rain on the long-term through the end of the month while remaining cooler than normal...as will the eastern half of the country.

Image

The Canadian if anything is even more robust in cool temps. They are more optimistic for rain breaking up on Thursday, instead of Saturday. We'll see.


There may be one or two more EPAC hurricanes that could play a role in our weather the rest of the month.

Image

Probably would play more of a roll in WTX and NTX than our area, but we’ll see.
Cpv17
 
Posts: 71
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:05 pm

You are absolutely right Cpv17. We are carefully watch the extended range. You've missed out on the rainfall many us of us have seen. El Nino is slowly developing. It appears we are in for an active late Fall and Winter Season.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17895
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Cpv17 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:40 pm

The GFS and CMC have trended quite a bit wetter the past couples runs across our area.
Cpv17
 
Posts: 71
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm

Re: OCTOBER 2018 - First Fall Cold Front/Cool & Damp WX

Postby Cpv17 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:30 am

I’m not quite sure how accurate the HRRR model is, but I always see a lot of people talking about it. Anyways, it seems to be keying in on Wharton, Jackson, & Colorado counties this morning.

Image
Cpv17
 
Posts: 71
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BlueJay, Google [Bot], JDsGN and 1 guest