SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:13 pm

CrashTestDummy wrote:Just got done with that line that's progressing toward Galveston Bay. We got .75" of rain from that. Galveston Bay is under a Special Marine Warning, and rightly-so. It got DARK here, and I could barely see the street in front of my house when that line passed. Galveston Bay is going to get filled up!



It got really dark and the wind really picked up down near the bay.
Great rumbles and some nice tropical downpours.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:11 pm

Still no rain here yet. Still optimistic that will change later this evening though. We’ve just been missing out on all the rain here lately. Sometimes that’s just how it goes.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:10 pm

Additional showers and thunderstorms moving into the Upper TX Coast to the SW of Houston-Galveston areas this evening. The weak cool front continues to progress SE and has passed College Station and Huntsville. A wet period through the weekend as the front moves just offshore tomorrow and returns as a warm front with tropical moisture.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:06 am

It sure is nice for those of us N of I-10 this morning to feel the light Northerly breezes and some refreshing drier air. Mid to upper 60's are pleasant with those N winds.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby jasons » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:30 am

My run this morning felt wonderful!! Fall is here!
Last Measurable Rainfall: September 26
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:42 pm

srainhoutx wrote:It sure is nice for those of us N of I-10 this morning to feel the light Northerly breezes and some refreshing drier air. Mid to upper 60's are pleasant with those N winds.



73° and 63° DP. Going to enjoy our day of Fall!
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Wednesday Nigh

Postby snowman65 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:49 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:It sure is nice for those of us N of I-10 this morning to feel the light Northerly breezes and some refreshing drier air. Mid to upper 60's are pleasant with those N winds.



73° and 63° DP. Going to enjoy my day of Fall!


Just as muggy as ever here in Orange. Different world here.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

Postby mckinne63 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:29 pm

The temps this morning were wonderful! I think it was low 70's here in Stafford, but you could definetly feel the difference!
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:17 am

It feels like Fall across SE TX this morning however a warm front will begin to move inland today from the NW GOM ushering in another period of rain and thunderstorms through the weekend.

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will generally put down
anywhere from less than an inch to two inches of rain. There may
be locally higher rainfall amounts of greater than 2 inches per
hour that will increase the local flash flood threat. A warm front
drifting into the area today could help to focus the rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Saturday expect slow moving storms with heavy rainfall starting
near the coast and expanding inland. This heavy rainfall on top of
the wet ground could lead to street flooding from the excessive
runoff. Rainfall totals .5" to 1 inch should be common with
isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches Saturday. Rain chances will
remain high on Sunday then tapering down Monday and Tuesday.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:15 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Chances for rain will increase this afternoon through the weekend as a warm front moves slowly across the area.

Continued very wet September pattern through the weekend as a surface warm front currently over the Gulf waters moves inland and combines with tropical moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Surface observations show the old frontal boundary from Wednesday lingering off the coast this morning with radar showing showers and a few thunderstorms developing along and south of this boundary from Corpus to well south of Sabine Pass. An upper level disturbance will be approaching the area later tonight and on Saturday helping to draw the surface boundary in the Gulf northward toward the coast or even inland over the coastal counties. Strong low level convergence will set up later today and into Saturday and with lift from the incoming short wave expect widespread development of thunderstorms along the coast that spread inland to roughly US 59. Not sure the coastal boundary will make much northward progress from late tonight through Sunday morning as rain cooled air mass and convective outflows may help to reinforce the low level boundary and hold it in place near the coast. Will favor the heaviest rainfall along and SE of US 59 tonight and Saturday closest to the sustained surface focus.

Rainfall Amounts:
Tropical moisture is once again in place especially near the coast and this will help to foster potentially very heavy rainfall rates. PWS climb to 1.9-2.2 inches on Saturday generally S of I-10 and think this area will be favored for the heaviest rainfall (coast to about US 59). Rainfall amounts will likely averaged 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 5-6 inches. This is the area that has had one of the wettest Septembers ever recorded and additional heavy rainfall on already soggy grounds will likely lead to rapid run-off and some flooding potential. NW of US 59 rainfall totals will likely average 1-2 inches through Sunday with isolated totals up to 4 inches.

The upper level disturbances move east of the area late Sunday, but a tropical air mass will remain in place and expect daily rain chances (30-40%) through at least the first part of next week.
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