SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby ccbluewater » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:38 pm

1.75" here at my house in Cypress(Fry & Tuckerton area) last two days. I'll take it! We were pretty dry the two weeks prior with most of the action going around us.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:43 pm

ccbluewater wrote:1.75" here at my house in Cypress(Fry & Tuckerton area) last two days. I'll take it! We were pretty dry the two weeks prior with most of the action going around us.


Howdy neighbor! Just shy of 2.3 inches since yesterday near Tuckerton and Huffmiester. Fortunately the yard was cut this morning before the rain moved in.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby unome » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:21 pm

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    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0875
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    751 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

    Areas affected... Southern OK... North Central TX

    Concerning... Heavy rainfall... Flash flooding likely

    Valid 212350Z - 220550Z

    Summary... Dangerous flash flooding will continue across areas of southern Oklahoma while expanding into north-central Texas through the evening hours. Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts will continue the high risk of flash flooding.

    Discussion... A strong setup continues for slow-moving convection in a highly efficient and moist airmass across southern Oklahoma and central Texas. Aloft, there is a broad area of divergence across the region while at the surface, a low was analyzed near KABI with a stationary draped across northern Texas near the Red River into west-central Arkansas. GOES-16 satellite imagery depicted a mid-level low across west-central Texas which is facilitating this forcing aloft.

    Sufficient instability exists across Texas with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg northward to the Red River. Impinging on the surface boundary is highly anomalous moisture from the Gulf of Mexico where recent RAP mesoanalysis showed PWATs of 2.2 to 2.3 inches, which is nearly 3 SD above normal. Strong 850mb moisture transport overrunning the stationary boundary has led to west/east oriented bands of convection since earlier this morning. Observed totals across southern Oklahoma generally show widespread areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local pockets of 7 to 10 inches. The highest total observed so far as of 7 pm EDT is 15.50 inches just south of Stonewall, OK as reported by emergency managers.

    There is good consensus in the recent runs of the HRRR and other CAMs depicting convection will continue slowly shifting from southern Oklahoma into north-central Texas as the surface low drifts eastward. This should set up a localized area of strong convergence, and given a continued influx of moisture, very efficient rainfall will persist through the evening hours. Forecast soundings for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area depict tall/skinny profiles with near saturation all supporting the tropical moisture allowing for efficient rainfall. Latest runs of the RAP show warm cloud depths of 4.5 to 5 km continuing through the evening hours. Over the next several hours, there is good agreement for an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain across north-central Texas with locally higher amounts likely. This will include the Dallas/Ft. Worth metropolitan area.

    These ingredients all suggest life-threatening and dangerous flash flooding will continue in the short-term across southern Oklahoma, but will likely expand across north-central Texas through the evening and into the overnight hours.

    Taylor

    ATTN... WFO... EWX... FWD... OUN...S HV... SJT... TSA...

    ATTN... RFC... ABRFC... LMRFC... WGRFC...

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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:28 am

It seems like models are backing off on rainfall over the next couple weeks. I’m not sure what the Euro is saying, but the GFS and the CMC have backed off quite a bit in recent runs for the majority of the state.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:56 am

Cpv17 wrote:It seems like models are backing off on rainfall over the next couple weeks. I’m not sure what the Euro is saying, but the GFS and the CMC have backed off quite a bit in recent runs for the majority of the state.



Really frustrated by this turn of events. Last year's Fall was very humid and hot/warm until literally 2 days before it snowed!. Hope we don't see a repeat. At least some NW flow and lower dewpoints would be nice! I'm trying to get back into shape and exercising/running in this soup is miserable. Feels like deep south Louisiana.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby Rip76 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:03 am

Rain looks to have fizzled a bit today as well.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby Cromagnum » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:39 am

Definite bust on this weekend's forecast. I don't mind that it's not raining cats and dogs like it has been, but I was counting on at least SOME rain to wash in the fertilizer I out down.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:42 am

Rain chances pretty much went poof for this weekend especially for those in the western 1/3 of the viewing area. This event looks to be a dud.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:53 am

It depends on your location. I am approaching 3 inches in my gauge since Thursday. 1 to 3 inches was the forecast. Meanwhile San Antonio just passed their previous record for the most rainfall in September. Galveston is nearing the third wettest September in their weather record keeping history and DFW received over 8 inches in 24 hours breaking a record. Many areas that were in serious drought conditions will show significant improvement next week when the Updated Drought Outlook is issued. We might even get some breezy NW winds this evening/tomorrow as that weak front nears our Region. There are 3 upper air disturbances spinning from NE Mexico to the Hill Country to just E of Dallas. All in all we likely will end September wetter than normal officially at IAH.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Rain Chances & Fall Front Late Next Week

Postby TexasBreeze » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:54 am

The front looks to initiate a line of storms across the central counties later on today. The western and sw areas look to be dry slotting...
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