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SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:12 pm

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
southeast Texa
s...including the following counties...in south
central Texas...Coastal Jackson. In southeast Texas...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands and Southern Liberty.

* From midnight CDT tonight through Thursday evening

* Additional heavy rainfall is expected overnight tonight into
tomorrow. An additional widespread 1 to 2 inches with isolated 4
inches of rainfall are possible across the watch area.

* Given the already saturated conditions, street flooding is
likely with some isolated flash flooding also possible where the
heaviest rain occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby ticka1 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:13 pm

looking into next week seems we are getting back into a dry pattern. any hints of cooler weather?
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:16 pm

Oh and if our Gulf disturbance does get named, it will be Kirk. Subtropical Storm Joyce just formed near the Azores.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:58 pm

Wednesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Four active named storms currently in the Atlantic basin with Joyce having formed in the far north Atlantic this afternoon

95L:
Satellite images suggest that a broad area of surface low pressure has formed today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and thunderstorms activity has increased somewhat although it remains fairly disorganized. Based on the current data there is a 70% chance that a tropical depression will form in the next 24 hours over the western Gulf of Mexico. This feature is generally moving toward the NW at around 10mph and will be approaching the lower or middle TX coast on Friday. Conditions across the NW Gulf of Mexico will gradually become more favorable for the development of a tropical depression or storm over the next 24-36 hours and it is possible if not likely that the broad surface low will consolidate as it nears the coast on Friday.

Regardless of this system being declared a tropical storm or depression, the impacts along the TX coast will be nearly the same….heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from midnight tonight to 700pm Thursday for all the coastal counties and SE Harris County where rainfall over the last 2-3 days has averaged 3-6 inches with isolated totals of up to 10 inches. Grounds over these areas are saturated and additional rainfall is expected to develop again overnight and impact many of these same areas.

Rainbands from 95L will begin to spread onto the TX coast late Thursday and increase into Thursday night and Friday and continue into Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common mainly south of I-10 tonight-Saturday night with isolated totals of 6-8 inches. North of I-10 rainfall amounts will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated totals of up to 4 inches. There is still some uncertainty with these rainfall numbers and they could change up or down in the next 24-48 hours.

The greatest threat for flooding will be over the areas that have experienced the most rainfall over the last several days or generally across the coastal counties and into SE Harris County and then further inland over the coastal bend and SW TX where rainfall has been plentiful and rivers already running high.

Will maintain winds of 10-20mph inland and 15-25mph along the coast an offshore unless the system becomes stronger than currently expected.

Tides will run about 1.0-1.5 feet above predicted levels along the coast with total water levels of 3.0-3.5 feet above MLLW which is generally below thresholds needed to cause issues along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston and along the west side of Galveston Bay.

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1536789359309_image001.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Rip76 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:56 pm

8 PM TWO:


A broad area of low pressure is located over the central Gulf of
Mexico. Although the shower activity is still disorganized,
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form
Thursday or Thursday night, before the system reaches the western
Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:25 am

The RGEM is juicy

Image
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Scott747 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:35 am

0z Euro run is intersting and *gasp* gives some credence to the Canadian.

Issac is headed towards the yucatan channel moving wnw.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:41 am

Scott747 wrote:0z Euro run is intersting and *gasp* gives some credence to the Canadian.

Issac is headed towards the yucatan channel moving wnw.


Yep. Most interesting run of the Euro yet with Isaac.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Scott747 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:48 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Scott747 wrote:0z Euro run is intersting and *gasp* gives some credence to the Canadian.

Issac is headed towards the yucatan channel moving wnw.


Yep. Most interesting run of the Euro yet with Isaac.


So far is eerily similar to the Canadian. Should begin to go more to the N.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 -Wet Week/Tracking INVEST 95L

Postby Scott747 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:51 am

Moving nw at hr 216 about 300 mi s of houma.
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