SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

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SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

Postby ticka1 » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Or will we see an easrly season cool front? Will it rain or not?
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:18 pm

The stock answer for this area of Texas is yes to more heat, with increased rain chances in the Brazos Valley in 7-10 days.

100°F heat in early September, especially with desiccated ground is not unusual at all.

Slight chance of rain this Monday and Tuesday (20-30%)

GFS has a backdoor front just after Labor Day, moving temps from near 100°F to the lower 90s. We'll see.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:59 am

Interesting to see the GFS spinning up a phantom tropical trouble maker in the Bay of Campeche just after Labor Day.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:30 am

Yes but its the GFS..... :lol:
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby jasons » Sat Aug 25, 2018 4:22 pm

We need to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic wave. Most all the global models, including king Euro, are now developing it near the Bahamas, crossing the Florida peninsula, and then redeveloping again in the Gulf. Most send it to Louisiana but it's a long way off and much will change between now and then. Something to watch this week and into the holiday weekend.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby ticka1 » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:32 pm

jasons wrote:We need to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic wave. Most all the global models, including king Euro, are now developing it near the Bahamas, crossing the Florida peninsula, and then redeveloping again in the Gulf. Most send it to Louisiana but it's a long way off and much will change between now and then. Something to watch this week and into the holiday weekend.


Not a forecast yet but cant discount the trends. With labor day fast approaching will we be spending our time watching the tropics? Need to monitor the trends and consistancy between models.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby jasons » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:34 am

Yesterday, the models were tracking the wave into Louisiana/Golden Triangle region and today they are taking it more into South Texas. I’m stating the obvious maybe, but it needs to be watched...
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby ticka1 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:38 am

jasons wrote:Yesterday, the models were tracking the wave into Louisiana/Golden Triangle region and today they are taking it more into South Texas. I’m stating the obvious maybe, but it needs to be watched...


Yes it needs to be watched.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:30 pm

Nothing but increasing moisture on the 12Z GFS, but the 12Z ECMWF does have a weak disturbance traveling from the Florida Straights across the Central Gulf and may be attempting to close off at 850mb as it nears S Texas around Labor Day. We will see.
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Re: SEPTEMBER 2018 - will heat continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:43 am

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 3h3 hours ago
Watching the Atlantic's Main Development Region this week into next for some strong African easterly waves to roll off Africa and potentially spin up into tropical cyclones. We are headed into the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricanes. Nothing active as of today, however.

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