AUGUST 2018 - Weak Cool Front/Rain Chances Tuesday

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: AUGUST 2018 - Patern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby mckinne63 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:26 pm

Nothing here. It was looking cloudy, we saw some rain on the radar in the area as we were doing errands, but nothing but a few sprinkles on the windshield.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Patern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:12 pm

Most of the activity today has been associated with a shear axis just to the NW of Metro Houston and over the Gulf. An inverted trough is slowing moving West into our area and increased storms out over the Gulf and well as some concentration of heavy storms in the Western Gulf is funneling higher deep tropical moisture into our Region and that looks to continue throughout the rest of the weekend into next week. Some days may bring more areal coverage of showers and storms than other, but indeed it is looking like a typical late summertime pattern ahead. Hopefully everyone's yard with get a drink of water or two over the next 7 to 10 days!
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Patern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby Cromagnum » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:28 pm

Been raining very hard down in Rosharon for past couple of hours. Badly needed as almost all recentvrain events missed us.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:53 am

Showers/storms look to be a bit more isolated today in areal coverage as the bulk of the clouds and storms are down the Coast today, but sea/baybreeze activity should spark off some storms as convective temperatures hit 90F.

MIMIC and visible imagery suggest an increase in PW's above 2 inches tomorrow as batch of showers and storms in the Central Gulf head our way which likely will bring more scattered storms tomorrow possibly extending into Tuesday.

Image
08052018 CODGOES16-subregional-W_Gulf_Coast.02.20180805.135725-over=map-bars=.gif


The overnight guidance is pointing to greater areal coverage event that may bring rounds of heavy rainfall Friday into Saturday as a shortwave brings lowering heights aloft and lower 850mb temperatures suggesting increasing PW's and a stalling boundary somewhere across Central and East Texas. That feature will need to be monitored over the next couple of days as the models often struggle with a stalling boundary and mesoscale features that cannot be determined this far out. The WPC QPF charts have been slowly but steadily shifting the core of the heavier rainfall South over the past 72 hours.

08052018 00Z 144 ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

08052018 00Z ecmwf_T850a_namer_7.png
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby unome » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:23 am

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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby unome » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:44 pm

you can view Meso 2 on Slider or COD sites also
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:56 pm

Looking over the 12Z suite of guidance the GFS remains the sole outlier regarding the late week expected forecast. The Euro and the Canadian are in very good agreement with the lowering of heights across Texas and cooler 850mb temperatures as well as a stalled boundary along or just S of a Junction to Austin to Lake Livingston line. If the guidance holds, a good soaking of generally 2 to 4 inches may be possible later this week into next weekend with isolated totals of 5 to 7 inches possible and isolated higher amounts as well depending on mesoscale features we just cannot foresee at this range. Fingers Crossed!

08052018 12Z 192 gem_apcpn_scus_32.png


The afternoon Update WPC 2 Day QPF charts valid from tonight into Tuesday evening look promising for our Region as well.
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08052018 2 Day QPF 18 Zd12_fill.gif
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby jasons » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:04 pm

Radar looked very promising for awhile, but now pretty much everything is falling apart as this outflow races ahead. Maybe more can form...
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby jasons » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:59 pm

Missed out again...
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby unome » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:02 pm

jasons wrote:Missed out again...


missed us, as well :( should have watered this morning - still, it's nice to see the chances are higher than they've been for a while
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