AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby tireman4 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:43 am

HGX Forecast Today
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am

The models right now have a weak GoM system near the Louisiana coast next week. Something to keep our eyes on. I don't have that sense of dread like a week out with Harvey. Increased shower activity today, and even tomorrow up in the Brazos Valley. Sunday features another good chance of showers for us.

It's tough to titrate the watering (affordable while providing trees extra water and avoiding disease) - I see the beginnings of cinch bugs in one area of the front that needs attention. Triazanon and spot watering to come!
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby unome » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:21 pm

I saw a blob of precip on WPC's days 6-7 QPF this morning & looked a bit further, I am looking forward to better rain chances

Loop of 6-Hourly QPF for Days 1-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

Loop of sea-level pressures and fronts through day 7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby jasons » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:06 pm

0.00"
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby tireman4 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:07 am

HGW Weather Forecast 08 29 18
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby tireman4 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:09 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291239
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
739 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.AVIATION...
PW values above 2.00 inches and convective temperatures near 90
degrees will allow for another day of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Leaned toward the HRRR for timing. An
inverted V signature will support the mention of wind gusts in the
TAFs. Mainly VFR conditions except in and near storms. Skies will
clear between 00-02z with scattered clouds returning after 09z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An inverted trough over South Texas is continuing to rotate in
Gulf moisture as onshore flow persists at the surface. PWs near or
above 2" are spread across the CWA, so expect isolated shower
activity this morning to become more widespread as we continue
throughout the day. As the showers and thunderstorms gradually
spread farther inland through the afternoon and evening hours,
BUFR soundings indicate an inverted-v signature and CAPE in the
2000-3000 J/kg range. Therefore, the threat for gusty winds and
frequent lightning exists with any of the stronger storms. Mean
cloud layer winds will be near 5 kts, so any storms that develop
will be slow moving. Coupled with PWs in the 2.2-2.3" range, there
is also a threat for heavy rainfall with any longer-lived storms,
which will likely exist along the seabreeze or near any areas of
outflow boundary interaction. Overall, coverage should be similar
to what was seen yesterday, so POPs were kept in the 30-50 range.
High temperature forecast today is largely dependent upon the
convective activity and timing. Any areas that see storms in the
early afternoon near the coast will likely top out near 90, while
areas with convection in the mid to late afternoon will stay in
the low to mid 90s. For areas without rain today, expect highs in
the mid to upper 90s.

An upper level ridge builds over West Texas tomorrow with heights
up to 594 dm. This will help suppress convective activity for the
inland areas and keep diurnal convection generally along and south
of I-10. High temperatures will get into the mid to upper 90s
farther inland where convection doesn`t reach. Drier air at mid-
levels moves in Friday, so inland areas will once again have lower
chances for precip than areas along and south of I-10. Convection
through the remainder of the week will be diurnally driven with
enhancement likely along the seabreeze and with any interacting
outflow boundaries.

For Labor Day Weekend, a series of inverted troughs and vort maxes
will progress across the Western Gulf as the upper-level high over
West Texas dampens. This will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, for the
remainder of the forecast period. The increase in rain chances and
cloud cover will help keep temperatures near average for this
time of year, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the
70s.

22

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and low pressure over the
central plains will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow into
next week. The Galveston Beach Patrol has reported strong rip
currents and a rip current statement may be required later today.
Wind speeds over the Gulf will be slightly stronger at night.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
forecast period (especially late nights and mornings) as deeper
moisture in the Eastern Gulf spreads into the area. Expect locally
higher winds and waves in and around any storms. Conditions are
also favorable for brief funnel clouds and waterspouts.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 96 75 98 / 40 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 90 76 93 76 94 / 50 10 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 82 88 / 40 30 40 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...22
Aviation/Marine...43
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby ticka1 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:47 am

Storming bad here in Chambers County. With lots of lightning and thunder.

Can someone remind me how to post an image here - do i have to use photobucket or some type of online storage?
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:07 am

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Highly active morning over extreme SE TX…now moving into the Galveston Bay and metro areas.

Upper air disturbance moving westward along the Louisiana coast overnight has sparked a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms that has become fairly organized this morning. This activity is moving westward at 5-10mph and will impact much of the metro region over the next 1-3 hours and then the western and southwestern portions of SE TX this afternoon.

Slow storm motions are resulting in a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall under the heaviest cells this morning. Moisture levels remain extremely high (PWS 2.1-2.3 inches) which will continue to support high rainfall rates.

Overall little change in the upper air pattern into next week with high pressure over the SE US and an ESE/E steering flow across the Gulf aimed at TX. This will bring tropical waves and waves of moisture toward the area. Will go with 40-60% rain chances each day through much of next week. Landfall of tropical waves will be days on rainfall enhancement.

Tropics:
Watching the weak tropical wave near the NE Leeward Islands this morning as this feature is what some global models have been hinting at with some development potential over the Bahamas or in the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. New wave moving off the west coast of Africa today has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby jasons » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:35 am

Well this just figures. Nice area of new storms forming just to my west, along I-45. The area upstream from me to the east is falling apart. Good chance I will get stuck in the middle with nothing...yet again...
Last edited by jasons on Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:37 am

Nasty bow echo headed to Lake Jackson area.

And just as quickly as I say that, outflows spit out in all directions and it's widening out.
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