AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby jasons » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:33 pm

That outflow racing from east to west is going to cutoff any instability over here, and the storms to my SW should fall apart as they move this way to the NE, just like the last several days. I predict another 0.00"....
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:13 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Outflow boundary collisions have done their work today. The East side really took a beating from the earlier storms.

Image



We're getting our nightly outflow boundary breeze, but no rain.

TBF, IMBY Wed afternoon there was a brief shower, accumulating 0.15 inches. Need an order of magnitude more of rain than that or more.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby jasons » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:18 pm

The winless streak continues down here. My neighbors all around me have seen some rain this week. Maybe one day I’ll upload the screen shot of RadarScope from back in July when my house was in the center of a doughnut hole.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby davidiowx » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:02 pm

Those folks in Waller county are sure having their fair of fun (rain) tonight.. my lightning detector is registering strikes from that cell in Richmond.. A cell that isn’t moving much either
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:03 pm

I continue to see unsettled weather across our Region in the longer range. Inspecting the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 as well as the MJO Outlooks, there are increasing indications that a full latitude trough develops as the MJO heads toward the Indian Ocean that is favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin. Conditions across the Atlantic has been hostile, but changes are brewing as likely the last surge of African Dust arrives Sunday into Tuesday. Climatology tells us that mid August is when SAL Outbreaks decline as we move closer to Fall.

While our tropical season for Texas has about 5 to 6 weeks remaining, climatology wise, we are heading toward peak season and as any responsible weather forecaster will tell you...it only take one to make for a very bad Season. Last year we had 10 Hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes develop around this time and ended about 7 weeks or so later. Always keep one eye on the Tropics as we near Peak Season as things can flip quickly.

Hopefully those that have escape the rain will get their chance soon enough. I see an area of disturbed weather heading our way just East of Tampico in the Western Gulf. That feature combined with the trough/closed upper low over Texas should increase our heavy rainfall chances tomorrow.

08102018 CPC 814temp_new.gif

08102018 CPC 814prcp_new.gif

08102018 CPC Day 8 to 14 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

08102018 MJO diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby jasons » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:11 pm

I hope so. I’ve kept the sprinklers off thinking “maybe tomorrow will be the day” but I can’t keep it up forever. If I don’t get any rain in the next day or two, I’m gonna have to flip the switch. And then the next day it will probably pour ;)

I don’t mean to be so cynical, but it is a broken record...
Last edited by jasons on Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby davidiowx » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:12 pm

jasons wrote:I hope so. I’ve kept the sprinklers off thinking “maybe tomorrow will be the day” but I can’t keep it up forever. If I don’t get any rain in the next day or two, I’m gonna have to flip the switch. And then the next day it will pour probably ;)



Lol.. flip the switch buddy.. it won’t hurt one way or the other!!
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby unome » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:09 pm

davidiowx wrote:Those folks in Waller county are sure having their fair of fun (rain) tonight.. my lightning detector is registering strikes from that cell in Richmond.. A cell that isn’t moving much either


it just doesn't want to quit - craziest thing, we can look out our dining room & see clear sky & stars, but the thunder & lightning in the other direction hasn't quit for hours - not a drop of rain on us, but the light show is incredible

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-96
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby unome » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 pm

really blowing up by San Antonio now, also

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1006 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.UPDATE...
A broken line of storms has developed oriented northeast to
southwest from Kendall County down to Dimmit County. This line is
very slowly moving to the east. These storms are producing copious
amounts of lightning, moderate to heavy rain, and gusty winds. A gust
front has begun to move out ahead of the leading edge of the
convective line, which may begin to decay the intensity of the
convection and hinder its eastward progress if it manages to cut the
storms off from their warm, moist inflow source. In the short term,
grids have been updated for current trends. PoPs out west have been
decreased considerably where rain has ended, with PoPs increased
considerably where storms are ongoing and heading in the near term.

Convective allowing models have been performing quite poorly today,
with the most recent HRRR runs initializing terribly. Thus, I am not
putting too much stock in what they are showing for the remainder of
the evening and overnight hours. For now, essentially using a blend
of various models for PoPs in the 1 am to 7 am (6z to 12z) time
frame, with this resulting in decreasing PoPs a bit, especially
across the western areas and into the Hill Country (from 70% down to
50%).
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - Pattern Change/Wetter & Cooler WX Likely

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:41 pm

From NWS San Antonio/Austin...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

.UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FROM KENDALL COUNTY DOWN TO DIMMIT COUNTY. THIS LINE IS
VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS. A GUST
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE, WHICH MAY BEGIN TO DECAY THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AND HINDER ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS IF IT MANAGES TO CUT THE
STORMS OFF FROM THEIR WARM, MOIST INFLOW SOURCE. IN THE SHORT TERM,
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS. POPS OUT WEST HAVE BEEN
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED, WITH POPS INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AND HEADING IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING QUITE POORLY TODAY,
WITH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS INITIALIZING TERRIBLY. THUS, I AM NOT
PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK IN WHAT THEY ARE SHOWING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW, ESSENTIALLY USING A BLEND
OF VARIOUS MODELS FOR POPS IN THE 1 AM TO 7 AM (6Z TO 12Z) TIME
FRAME, WITH THIS RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS A BIT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY (FROM 70% DOWN TO
50%).
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