AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

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AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

Postby ticka1 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:16 pm

This month is usually the hottest month fir SE texas and usually see uptick in tropical action! Busy month with summer vacations winding down and kids and teachers going back to school. Will we be hot and dry or rainy and muggy?
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - will we see the dog days of August

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:14 pm

Ruff!
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - will we see the dog days of August

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:52 am

As the calendar turns to August, attention may need to be focused on a wet phase of the MJO and a robust Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave arriving as August begins. I mentioned a week or so ago that there are some signals that the Main Development Region may not be as hostile as it is now and wind shear may begin to relax as we near mid August. Today in the weekly ENSO Update we see the Region 3.4 actually cooled which may indicate the return of El Nino may be delayed, or not happen at all until early next year. Let this serve as a reminder that the atmosphere does not always behave as our reliable models and long range forecaster believe it will. As we near the heart of Hurricane Season, let this serve as a reminder that it only take one to make for a very bad Hurricane Season. Time will tell.

07162018 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

07162018 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - will we see the dog days of August

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:35 pm

August is when hurricane season starts to ramp up.

Some of the most devastating hurricanes occurred in August; Sea Islands (1893), San Ciriaco (1899), Monterrey (1909), Camille (1969), David (1979), Allen (1980), Alicia (1983), Andrew (1992), Charley (2004), Katrina (2005), Dean (2007), Irene (2011), and Harvey (2017).

Harvey and Katrina are the costliest hurricanes to date.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - 'Cooler' & 'Wetter' Pattern Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:19 pm

The afternoon Updated CPC day 6 to 10 Outlooks suggests cooler air and wetter weather returns as July ends and August begins. I continue to see chances of rainfall extend into the mid August timeframe if the long range guidance is correct.

07252018 CPC 610temp_new.gif

07252018 CPC 610prcp_new.gif


Compared to last year, I see some resemblance of a familiar pattern which is somewhat interesting and a bit concerning as we near the 1 year Anniversary of Harvey.

07262017 814temp_new.gif

07262017 610prcp_new.gif
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - 'Cooler' & 'Wetter' Pattern Returns

Postby South_Texas_Storms » Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:24 pm

I agree with Steve, as the long range models are in decent agreement that a cooler and wetter weather pattern will be returning as we end July and head into August. The ridge looks to remain west and north of TX, possibly leading to unsettled conditions. Bring on the rain and cooler temperatures!
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - 'Cooler' & 'Wetter' Pattern Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:50 am

The overnight ensemble guidance threw out a curveball regarding the Teleconnection Indices suggest a more significant Hemispheric Pattern change may be in the cards as we start August. We will need to monitor the 12Z suite of guidance to see if this is just a blip, or if it is a signal that more significant changes are brewing.

Regarding the next week, the deep trough still looks likely and if the ECMWF is correct, the trough may well be centered over Texas at the base of that trough appears to be anchored over our Region through Day 10. The front pushes offshore and stalls and a weak wave of low pressure develops offshore, but as of now is not that impressive. Chance chances look to increase next Monday through Wednesday at least with the stalled boundary nearby.

The long range GFS is indicating that the Monsoonal trough that has been well South across Africa is gaining some latitude suggesting thunderstorm complexes will splash into the Eastern Atlantic a bit further N as the tropical waves transition across the Atlantic/MDR. Sea Surface Temperature across the MDR have warmed a bit that past several days and the trade winds appear to be slowing and wind shear may be decreasing as well. We'll have a lot to watch in the weather department as we head toward peak Hurricane Season, so stay tuned.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - 'Cooler' & 'Wetter' Pattern Returns

Postby Texaspirate11 » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:51 am

Got to give a shout out to SAL for choking off anything that could develop
Although I've coughed through July giving it praise....
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - 'Cooler' & 'Wetter' Pattern Returns

Postby Andrew » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:50 am

As mentioned by Steve and others, the beginning of August looks favorable for increased moisture. Tuesday/Wednesday will likely be the best chance for rain locally but long range models hint that the strong grip ridging has had over the South over the last several weeks won't be nearly as strong for the first half of August. So keep your fingers crossed.

Looking at the tropics, I don't see any development (outside of something locally) occurring until well into August. SAL is doing an excellent job at chocking any storms coming off the coast of Africa and will continue for the next couple weeks. Stronger waves will start to exit the coast towards the middle of August but it may take two or more storms to really knock down all the dust. Furthermore, looking at the MJO, most models indicate a Western Pacific phasing will continue for the next two weeks but that could gradually push east into the Eastern Atlantic by mid-August. Either way, we are still over a month away from peak hurricane season.
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Re: AUGUST 2018 - 'Cooler' & 'Wetter' Pattern Returns

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:25 pm

GFS, Canadian, Euro, Ensemble are in agreement for a trough building over Texas and the Central US beginning Saturday for a week. Maybe a ridge in the East building during the second week of August. Cooler weather for us persists to Aug 12 on GFS. We'll see.

We did not have much rain in July, so anything to dampened down temps and increase rain chances is welcome.

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