July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:36 am

TWC took most of the rain out of the forecast, except Sunday. Fortunately. NOAA retains 50% chance over the next 3 days.


This was a repeat of Wednesday in that showers fell apart as they neared with the sun setting...then reformed SW of us.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:38 am

DoctorMu wrote:TWC took most of the rain out of the forecast, except Sunday. Fortunately. NOAA retains 50% chance over the next 3 days.


This was a repeat of Wednesday in that showers fell apart as they neared with the sun setting...then reformed SW of us.


Still hopeful that the stalled frontal boundary just to your N and E can give you folks in B/CS a good chance at some rainfall on Sunday.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby tireman4 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:47 pm

Weekend Forecast
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby tireman4 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:17 pm

Jeff's AFD (sorta) for the late afternoon and evening..
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby Rip76 » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:45 pm

Staring to see those towers...
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby jasons » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:39 pm

Just not much out there today, so far.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:50 pm

jasons wrote:Just not much out there today, so far.



That's changed a bit. The statewide radar is something to see! We're getting into the action a little. Just 60-90 earlier in the day with a cell makes a significant difference. A nice 10-15 min shower.

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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:53 am

Keep those umbrellas handy and remember when thunder roars, head indoors. High moisture levels and effective dynamics could lead to heavy rainfall rates wherever the heaviest storms develop today through Monday.

07072018 Day 1 EX 94ewbg.gif

07072018 Day 2 EX 98ewbg.gif

07072018 Day 3. EX 99ewbg.gif

07072018 3 Day QPF d13_fill.gif
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:43 pm

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 20m20 minutes ago
We are getting several reports of tropical funnels and waterspouts over Galveston Bay. These are typically short-lived weak circulations. Please stay weather aware! #glswx #txwx

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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:30 pm

Fast moving showers are lined up across old outflow boundaries. Drink up, northern counties!

Image



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.AVIATION...
Current radar imagery has a splattering of showers and
thunderstorms streaming across the northern TAF sites CLL/UTS/CXO
and over our coastal terminals. Coverage should expand this
afternoon across all SE TX sites as convection continues to
blossom off of old outflow boundaries, and along the sea and bay
breezes. Short term guidance such as the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF
carry the precipitation into the evening hours dissipating mostly
before midnight. Overall, winds will be veering more onshore
through the day and remain between 5-10 kts. Gusty winds will be
possible beneath stronger storms that develop. MVFR ceilings will
build back in along the coast tomorrow, and showers will likely
develop by early morning Sunday. Have gone ahead and included VCSH
in for LBX/GLS by 09Z, with precipitation beginning a few hours
later for the inland terminals.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
We are starting to see activity perk up across SE TX this morning,
especially near the coast. With generally uniform 2" PWs over the
area and daytime heating, scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the rest of the day today, with the best chances
likely with the seabreeze as it moves inland. Did tweak POP grids
in the short-term to match up with current trends. Otherwise, not
too many changes with temps this afternoon/evening. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

A small cluster of thunderstorms that have moved across the
central western forecast area early this morning have exited
Colorado County this past hour. Today`s convective activity will
be very similar to yesterday`s as weak disturbances pass across
within the dominant northeasterly steering flow. Festering showers
and thunderstorms over the western Gulf this morning are possibly
a sign that, with inland warming into the middle to upper 80s,
northwestern Gulf evolving towering cumulus-producing-showers will
begin to develop closer to the coast with some of these
strengthening into thunderstorms. A weak land breeze boundary
along with land-sea frictional elements will assist in better
lower level convergence over the coastal counties. Nearshore
clustering cells will likely work their way onshore through the
late morning hours and put down a quick few hundredths to a
quarter of an inch upon their westward trek. There should be
enough early day sun to heat interior temperatures up into the
lower 90s. This will provide enough instability/lift to allow for
the development of more central CWA widely scattered showers and
storms. A lifting sea breeze front will also aid in providing the
additional focus, or low level convergence, required for further
downstream initiation of future discrete storm cells. Greater than
2 inch pwats will exist within a channel of lower heights as
eastern Texas stays under the weaker underbelly of a Four Corners-
centered upper ridge. Considering that a weak circulation over the
Florida Panhandle will be moving into the northeastern Gulf later
today, POPs are weighted more towards areal (precipitation)
coverage as confidence remains high on occurrence. Partially
cloudy becoming overcast skies will regulate many interior maximum
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, middle 90s further
north where there is no or delayed rain. High moisture and weak
winds will stick minimum temperatures in the average inland middle
70s with coastal lower 80s. Heat indices will typically top out
in the average upper 90s.

A weak inverted trough will be moving into the western Gulf Sunday.
As this wave approaches east Texas, Sunday`s precipitation chances
will climb into the likely category as the region falls along and
east of its axis. All of the key ingredients are in place such as
high unseasonable moisture and an unstable background environment
(progged ~7-8 deg C lapse rates produce ample strong to marginal
severe thermodynamic indices) indicate that there is a high
probability of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity tomorrow.
Once this wave passes, relatively lower heights and an unchanged
thermo profile suggests that there will be another round of daily
convection; less coverage than Sunday but still a decent amount of
clustering convection that impact at least 40-50% of the forecast
area by sunset. Late period, or from Tuesday on through the work
week, increasing heights will commence a drying pattern with any
daytime shower/storm behavior forming along the regional (sea/bay)
mesobreezes. Less precipitation and drier ground will lift maximum
temperatures by a few degrees in subsequent days. Average lower to
middle 90 ambient temperatures with the typical lower to middle 70
dew points will produce slightly higher heat indices closer to 105 F
than 100 F. 31
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