July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby CrashTestDummy » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:53 pm

It's looked like a flame thrower all afternoon! The area is currently under a flash flood advisory until 1615 today.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby Cromagnum » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:44 pm

Looks like a healthy line off towards LA border.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby Belmer » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:28 pm

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby Ounce » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:14 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC291-373-407-060030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0069.180706T0004Z-180706T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
North central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 703 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Coldspring to Lake Livingston to 9 miles
southwest of Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Shepherd, Coldspring, Goodrich, Lake Livingston State
Park, West Livingston, Romayor, Evergreen and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Lake Livingston, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15
miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are
close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do
not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3037 9475 3050 9534 3075 9512
3069 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 016DEG 20KT 3064 9513 3060 9478

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby Ounce » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:15 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC071-167-291-060045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0068.180706T0002Z-180706T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 701 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of China to 14 miles northeast of High
Island, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Anahuac, Winnie, Stowell and Hankamer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2956 9442 2973 9467 2994 9468 2999 9444
2989 9444 2989 9436 2962 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 078DEG 17KT 2997 9435 2966 9418

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby bikerack » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:05 pm

Belmer wrote:Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.


Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:17 pm

bikerack wrote:
Belmer wrote:Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.


Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.



That line skirted us, left a trace, and is now pummeling NW Harris Co. A second wave is approaching CLL, but falling apart. We had a nice outflow boundary breeze a few minutes ago. Not sure things will get wet though. We may have to wait for the front. Getting tired of running the sprinklers, and we still have the last half of July and August to go.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby Belmer » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:25 pm

bikerack wrote:
Belmer wrote:Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.


Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.


I wouldn't say they weren't right. Generally, the storms to the east and north did weaken with the loss of daytime heating. The severe warned storm that went through Beaumont and skirted the coastal counties collapsed quickly as it approached Baytown. Locations south of I-10 today saw storms already... atmosphere being a bit more worked over. North of I-10 has been hot and dry, so those storms were able to hold a bit of a punch longer.

Though with that said, the HRRR does seem to be struggling as of late with these east to west storms.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:05 pm

Belmer wrote:
bikerack wrote:
Belmer wrote:Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.


Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.


I wouldn't say they weren't right. Generally, the storms to the east and north did weaken with the loss of daytime heating. The severe warned storm that went through Beaumont and skirted the coastal counties collapsed quickly as it approached Baytown. Locations south of I-10 today saw storms already... atmosphere being a bit more worked over. North of I-10 has been hot and dry, so those storms were able to hold a bit of a punch longer.

Though with that said, the HRRR does seem to be struggling as of late with these east to west storms.



Indeed. Enough heat retention (90°F at dusk) so the last storm held together a bit. We may get a few tenths of an inch, and another cell heading this way, but weakening. Evening rain not associated with a squal line or STJ is unusual up here.
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Re: July 2018: Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:57 am

It appears most of the showers/storms are far enough offshore to possibly give us a bit of a break in the rain chances today. Odds begin to increase tomorrow afternoon/evening as the next area of disturbed weather moves from East to West across our Region on Sunday. This one appears to have a bit more areal coverage and the WPC has Outlined a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sunday.
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