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July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:47 pm

Both the GFS and European model indicate a fair amount of daytime showers and thunderstorms on the 4th. A bit cooler than normal temps and greater than normal chance of rain.
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:12 am

The GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a fairly good chance for showers and storms Tuesday, Wednesday (July 4th) and possibly Thursday as an inverted trough passes along the Gulf Coast. The 12Z GFS is a tad more aggressive in the rainfall amounts than what it had been suggesting. Looks like a good 2 inches of rain from this feature may be possible. Nothing tropical associated with the inverted trough at this time is expected.
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:39 am

srainhoutx wrote:The GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a fairly good chance for showers and storms Tuesday, Wednesday (July 4th) and possibly Thursday as an inverted trough passes along the Gulf Coast. The 12Z GFS is a tad more aggressive in the rainfall amounts than what it had been suggesting. Looks like a good 2 inches of rain from this feature may be possible. Nothing tropical associated with the inverted trough at this time is expected.

Bring it!

Especially we northern counties.
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:32 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a fairly good chance for showers and storms Tuesday, Wednesday (July 4th) and possibly Thursday as an inverted trough passes along the Gulf Coast. The 12Z GFS is a tad more aggressive in the rainfall amounts than what it had been suggesting. Looks like a good 2 inches of rain from this feature may be possible. Nothing tropical associated with the inverted trough at this time is expected.

Bring it!

Especially we northern counties.



GFS, Canadian, ICON, ensemble still on board a retrograde-moving trough providing showers around the 4th and 5th.

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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:40 pm

The 12Z ECMWF still seems to be the aggressive outlier with this feature. The Euro has a weak 1011 low associated with the trough. Appears the origin of this inverted trough is associated with weekend storms near Atlanta that rounds the Eastern flank of the Upper Heat Ridge that is anchored across the Plains, Mid West into the Mid Atlantic Region and drops S and then heads West along the Gulf Coast toward Texas on July 4th.
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby Texaspirate11 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:11 pm

Oh well dang......and here I was going for my 2nd year in a row win of our towns "4th of July Community Picnic" pie contest.....
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby djmike » Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:18 am

Not a lot of chatter on this system mid week. Are we confident it won't turn into anything? And are we looking at several inches like last week or just a few?
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:16 am

Levi (TropicalTidbits) posted the EURO and it has it going into NOLA....
So its still kinda who knows.....
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:41 am

djmike wrote:Not a lot of chatter on this system mid week. Are we confident it won't turn into anything? And are we looking at several inches like last week or just a few?


It'll "turn into" some rain for us on the 4th. No tropical development. Euro has anywhere from 2-6 inches across SE TX next Wed/Thu. GFS isn't as wet, only indicating an inch or two. Good agreement that the weak upper-level disturbance will result in rain chances going way up centered on the 4th.
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Re: July 2018 4th Of July Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:04 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff regarding the 4th of July:

Typical summer weather in place over the region with hot and mostly dry conditions with an isolated 20% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm…this will continue for the next couple of days.

Changes appear on the horizon as we start the 4th of July week as vorticity over the SE US begins to dig SSW around the building of a large upper level high pressure system that will bring dangerous heat to the Midwest and NE US this weekend into early next week. Easterly mid and upper level flow will begin to develop along the US Gulf coast early next week on the southern side of the large high pressure cell over the Midwest to NE US. Active weather over the NE Gulf of Mexico is forecasted to begin to shift westward and arrive into SE TX by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will likely consists of an upper level trough and a surge of tropical moisture. Confidence is starting to increase that the period from late Tuesday into Thursday of next week will feature active showers and thunderstorms and some of these storms may contain very heavy rainfall.

Note: the much talked about Saharan Dust will be starting to arrive across SE TX today and encompass the entire area on Saturday into Sunday. Most of this dust is elevated well above the surface…above 5,000 ft, but at times some of the particles can drift to the surface and cause some breathing irritations. Such outbreaks of dust have occurred in past summers resulting in a hazy look to the sky over the area for a few days.
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