JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:38 am

HGX AFD

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201536
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Rains to the north moving out quickly and the swath out to our
west remaining in place. Latest visible satellite loops indic-
ating some breaks in the clouds over our E/SE counties, and if
this trend continues to spread into other parts of the CWA, we
could see development of scattered activity later in the day.
However, on the plus side, not really seeing any boundaries to
focus these storms. Current forecast grids seem to have things
covered and not planning on any significant changes at present.
41

&&
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:00 am

Only 1.27" in W League City the past 3 days and that is just fine.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:14 am

jasons wrote:Feast or famine. Somehow a lot of the Houston area has managed to avoid most of the rain, it's like a dome has been over us the last 3 days.


Yep, throw all the QPF models in the garbage.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby unome » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:16 am

Little Cypress at Becker nearing top of banks

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... surfaceBox


Barker & Addicks are working as they were intended - you can see on the Inundation Mapping that they are retaining water

https://www.harriscountyfws.org

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... surfaceBox
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... surfaceBox
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby ticka1 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:28 am

Cromagnum wrote:
jasons wrote:Feast or famine. Somehow a lot of the Houston area has managed to avoid most of the rain, it's like a dome has been over us the last 3 days.


Yep, throw all the QPF models in the garbage.


Well glad we didn't get any flooding. Hopefully most got beneficial rains. The heat returns on Friday.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:40 am

Remember what Dr. Frank always preaches, "Until a tropical system is completely gone, you always have to have your guard up" . We still have a warm moist atmosphere, low convective temperatures and onshore flow. HGX still has a 70 percent of heavy rain today..
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby sau27 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:45 am

Nice little CU field is popping up in the clearing between the metro area and the Louisiana border. With CAPE values running between 2,500 and 3,000 and PWATS still high and inflow off the gulf no longer impeded I wouldn't say we are totally done yet. Will be interesting to see if gravity waves pushing southeast through North Central Texas as well as any boundaries that form from pop up storms in the clearing sector set things off today.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:49 am

0.995 in. IMBY now. We may or may not double that depending on the vector of the blue whale shaped meso west of Houston.

Would not mind it at all.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby brooksgarner » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:51 am

tireman4 wrote:Remember what Dr. Frank always preaches, "Until a tropical system is completely gone, you always have to have your guard up" . We still have a warm moist atmosphere, low convective temperatures and onshore flow. HGX still has a 70 percent of heavy rain today..


That's very good advice -- and it's a reality we'll face until PWATS drop tomorrow night... So, tropical moisture in place through tomorrow. All this sunshine baking a moist atmosphere with dew points around 80°F means a flooding rain threat should we see a boundary move in (maybe sea breeze, if it gets warm enough?) Certainly short-range could feature a piece of that Corpus Christi energy swinging through as the system is scoured out by the drier air to the north tomorrow night...
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby brooksgarner » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:52 am

mcd0336.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0336
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1215 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 201615Z - 202115Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING BAND AND SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG TROUGH AXIS
POSE POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING RISK OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SHARPENING MCV OVER OVER N BEE/N
LIVE OAK COUNTY WITH N-S ORIENTED OUTLFOW BAND FROM LAVACA TO
CALHOUN INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE MCV REMAINS CONNECTED TO THE
MID-LEVEL TROF EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED
BETWEEN LEE TO HOUSTON TO HARRISON COUNTY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THESE BOUNDARIES...CLEAR SKIES AND GULF ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 NEAR
GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SLOWLY EASTWARD
PROGRESSING LINE HAS REDUCED TEMPS AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY TO NO
MORE THAN 500 J/KG. THE MCV HAS SUPPORTED SOME LOW LEVEL BACKING
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OF THIS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE N-S TRAINING BAND. AS SUCH RATES ARE STEADY
AROUND 1"/HR CURRENTLY BUT OFFSHORE INCREASING VERTICAL DEPTH (PER
OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN 1 MINUTE MESO VISIBLE IMAGERY) SUGGEST
INCREASING THREAT OF 2"+/HR CELLS MAY BE ON THE WAY BUT LIKELY
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. SO 2-3" IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
BAND AND NEW FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS

LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF AT 15-20KTS IS STARTING TO PILE UP AT
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE LINE COINSIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF NEAR
GYB TO CLL TO LFK. HI-RES CAMS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SOME INCREASED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS PROXIMITY THAT WOULD BUILD SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRENGTHENING AND MORE UNSTABLE INFLOW
ENVIORNMENT. RATES OF 1.5-2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY MORE
LIMITED IN TIME/DURATION WITH SURGES IN THE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT.
THIS AREA IS ALSO GENERALLY BEEN DRY BUT IF THE CONVECTION COULD
BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD WALLER/AUSTIN AND S GRIMES THAT WERE AFFECT
YESTERDAY...FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER IT IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LEE TO HOUSTON COUNTY TRACK OR EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...SO FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31109563 30889519 29939555 28569603 28219653
28019702 29139713 30249718 30699644
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