JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Rip76 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:30 pm

Thoughts on the possibility of less rain out of this system?
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby tireman4 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:43 pm

Stacey Stewart has spoken. About the rain, that is a pro met question...


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby don » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:04 pm

12z European model

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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:29 pm

Looks like widespread 2-5 inches across our area Sun-Tue. Not expecting anything remotely close to Harvey. Perhaps some brief street flooding at times, but that's about it. No hurricane threat.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby stormlover » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:36 pm

I think we could get little more, Thursday morning we will know more..u never know with these systems
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:55 pm

Widespread 2-5” over 3-4 days would be a Godsend. Anything more will cause trouble. Anything less will be a huge letdown and disappointment.

Thin needle to thread, Invest 91L, you...
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby mcheer23 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:59 pm

I'm also thinking a widespread 3-5 with isolated totals a little north of that.
Still don't let your guard down! Stay weather aware!


WPC has moved the bulls-eye for the heaviest rain into Beaumont area and western Louisiana.
There is still a lot of uncertainty.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:56 pm

Rip76 wrote:Thoughts on the possibility of less rain out of this system?


I don't see any significant changes at this time. The GFS was drier and the ECMWF/CMC solutions where somewhat more aggressive with our rainfall chances. The WPC didn't make any significant changes to the 7 Day QPF other than extending heavy rainfall further East along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Typically the various guidance solutions struggle with expected rainfall solutions beyond 24 hours out with these sloppy systems that lack any real organization.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:04 pm

In other news, it's actually raining here at the office in The Woodlands. Enough to wet the pavement at least. Looks like the house barely got any at all though.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby unome » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:19 pm

jasons wrote:In other news, it's actually raining here at the office in The Woodlands. Enough to wet the pavement at least. Looks like the house barely got any at all though.


jealous, enjoy - feels like it's baking here https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=houston

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