JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby mcheer23 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:55 pm

EURO also has a patch of 10-12 inches of rain to the east of Houston metro...Livingston down through Liberty
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby stormlover » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:19 pm

Srain, what do u mean by much sharper trough ?
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:29 pm

stormlover wrote:Srain, what do u mean by much sharper trough ?


Meaning there is a bit of a wind shift along the trough axis creating a bit more lift potentially generated. Some of those higher rainfall totals may be related. An open wave or very little wind action along the trough tends to favor less in the way of rainfall.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby stormlover » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:33 pm

Thanks
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Ounce » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:49 pm

Looks like south and west of SA is getting the splattering of rain, presently. Looking outside, I see tons more blue than clouds. Closest little spark of rain is SW of Brenham moving north. To be capped or not be capped around here. That is the question.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby mckinne63 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:21 pm

Rip76 wrote:I started to notice it just after the cool front swept through after Ike.


Our Bradford Pear tree bloomed early that year, the biggest most beautiful blooms we have ever seen on it. Now it just gets a few blooms. It has not been the same since Ike. I think Ike did have a major impact on our weather here and messed up the trees and other things.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:39 pm

jasons wrote:
Cromagnum wrote:It's interesting that lately we seem to be in a drought and get caught up in rain all at once only to go back to drought a few weeks later. Hoping for 3-4 days of good soaking rains from this.


Been that way for years, seems like it really started with the Rita near-miss in 2005. Since then, the tree canopy has been almost decimated by pine beetles and intermittent droughts. Just when we get enough moisture to pull things out of stress, it starts up again.



That's what I've noticed, and have a record of the rain pattern. Fewer in frequency and more varied.

I put the trees on a program a few years ago to get them through the summers: Superthrive, Medina, gypsum, sulfur, Miracle Gro, occasional fertilization, 10 gal extra water/week past sprinkler system
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Rip76 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:52 pm

Big towers firing right now.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:31 pm

The rain missed me by a few miles. That cell in NW Harris County / SW Montgomery County is still going. Pretty impressive storms this evening.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:52 pm

No rain here today, but we are seeing that moisture is slowly creeping upward and that should continue into the weekend. PW's should near 2 inches on Saturday and increase further on Sunday/Monday to 2.3 to 2.5 inches which is impressive for this year so far.

I noticed that the 12Z TC Genesis Probabilities in the Western Gulf increase by 120 hours to 40 to 50% and become higher in the 120 to 240 hour range which I find interesting. Wind shear appears to try to relax over portions of the Western Gulf around hour 96 via the GFS. While no one is expecting any sort of real development from 91L, the 7:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook holds the 0% chance over the next 48 hours and 20% chance through the 5 day period.
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