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JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:03 pm

The BOC and Western GOM have a long, storied history of storms trying to wrap-up at the last minute. There are certain factors that just cannot be reliably modeled very well this far out, such as any pockets of relative low shear sandwiched in-between areas of higher shear, moisture envelopes (or dry air), possible outflow enhancers (or inhibitors) related to nearby tropical systems or troughs, etc.

There are still a lot of variables on the table to sort out before declaring the fate of 91L, but for now the prudent call is a land-falling sharp wave along the Texas coast.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby mcheer23 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:12 pm

NAM is trying to develop 91L ...but then again it's the NAM.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby stormlover » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:23 pm

Yeah I see that but I do think it might have a 24 hour period where it could try form little depression
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby mcheer23 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:16 pm

NAM, GFS and CMC are all more bullish tonight.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:57 pm

jasons wrote:The rain missed me by a few miles. That cell in NW Harris County / SW Montgomery County is still going. Pretty impressive storms this evening.



Got to within 5 miles of College Station and then Death by Aggiedome (OK, it was actually the sun setting). Not a drop.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby don » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:18 pm

I think there could be an opportunity for 91L to develop, on Saturday into Sunday, models do show it moving quickly though, the system seems to make "landfall" on the GFS and Canadian models as early as Sunday Afternoon.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Andrew » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:53 pm

don wrote:I think there could be an opportunity for 91L to develop, on Saturday into Sunday, models do show it moving quickly though, the system seems to make "landfall" on the GFS and Canadian models as early as Sunday Afternoon.


An ULL over the BOC could provide some ventilation/ reduce shear over the western gulf but it is forecasted for a rather short period. That is why you see that quick vort max show up at 850mb. Still, I have my doubts anything meaningful could spin up.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:58 am

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday-Tuesday

Tropical feature over the western Caribbean Sea will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Development of this system appears to be low due to strong wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, but this wind shear will be weakening this weekend so this system will need to be monitored for any attempts at development over the weekend. The NHC currently places the 5 days development chances at 10%.

Large influx of moisture will begin on Saturday as the wave axis approaches the TX coast and then slowly moves inland Sunday and Monday. Global models have come into slightly better agreement that the main axis of moisture looks to be aimed at the upper TX coast Sunday and Monday. The forecast for Saturday is more uncertain as the moisture may begin to arrive late delaying the best rain chances until the afternoon into the evening hours. Sunday and Monday looks to have widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall Amounts:
Not much change to the widespread 2-5 inches with isolated higher amounts over a 2-3 day period. Any sort of banding features or training of storms would result in quick rainfall accumulations and much higher totals on a local level. Air mass will become extremely moist with PWS of 2.1-2.6 inches by Sunday and a nearly saturated profile indicating storms will maximize their rainfall efficiency. Short durations storm totals of 2-3 inches will be possible in an hour or less under any organized storms or any areas of S to N training.

While confidence continues to increase on the widespread rainfall amounts, where any particular location may see the higher isolated totals remains unclear.

Hydro:
Grounds are dry over the region and will be able to absorb the first few inches of rainfall without much run-off. Flash flood guidance remains in the 4-6 inch range for 6 hours over the area. Main concern at this point would be any location that receives intense short duration rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches in an hour or less. Even with dry grounds this is a large amount of rainfall in a short period of time and would likely result in street flooding and ponding. Grounds will gradually saturate as the event moves into Monday and Tuesday and more significant amounts of run-off may be generated at that time.

Marine:
As the tropical wave axis moves into the western Gulf of Mexico conditions across the coastal waters will be deteriorating this weekend. Long fetch ESE/SE winds of 20-25kts will begin to build seas starting on Saturday and peaking Sunday/Monday in the 7-10 foot range. Long period swells will begin to arrive along the TX coast late Saturday into Sunday and latest ET surge guidance is indicating water level and wave run-up closer to advisory levels along the Gulf beaches on Sunday. ET surge is showing nearly 1 foot of storm surge on top of the normal tide cycle by early Sunday with total water level of just over 3 feet at Galveston Pleasure Pier.

Forecasted Rainfall Totals (5-days today-Tuesday…most of this will fall Sun-Tues):

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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:57 am

Development chances still appear slim. Chances of widespread rainfall totals 2-5 inches look high. Could be some training of echoes in some locations that may result in rainfall totals of 10 inches, or more. Impossible to tell where those locations will be. Generally a beneficial rain event, with some street flooding at times.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:37 am

This weekend rainfall forecast....
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