JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby davidiowx » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:38 pm

Well that was fun. Looks like it’s about done for me with NO complaints here. Great beneficial rains that we definitely needed!
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby Andrew » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:40 pm

Line moved through here pretty good northwest of 610. Got some good rainfall out of it and it moved through fast enough not to cause any flooding. Locally, looking at rain gauges across the region so far the Katy region is the big "winner" with close to 8 inches. Most of the rest of us have received at least 1.5 inches with most of us in the 2+ range. Still have more rain falling and expect another chance of rain tomorrow even though coverage will be a lot less.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby davidiowx » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:49 pm

Feel for those down in S. Texas area. Another huge bow up on satellite and some of those places have had a foot per radar estimates.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:03 pm

Over 3 inches and still counting for today. Add that to the 1.03 inches I emptied from Sunday to yesterday. Never underestimate a surge of disturbed tropical weather and deep tropical moisture moving inland. No bust in the general forecast as far as I am concerned considering the models were almost useless in pin pointing exactly where and when the heaviest rainfall would occur... ;)
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby Rip76 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:10 pm

Pearland getting hammered
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby davidiowx » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:37 pm

Image


That’s a nice blow up off the coast of Texas..
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby unome » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:10 pm

Image


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0341
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 210003Z - 210603Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS ENHANCED EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATIONARY UPPER VORT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO THE MCV OVER FAR SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ENHANCE ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS MCV IN THE PERSISTENT AXIS OF MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES...2.5 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN. AT THE MOMENT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY VORT ALONG THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS OF
VERY UNSTABLE AIR SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE...MUCAPE VALUES IN THE
2000-3000+ RANGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT TO THIS MCV AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THIS MCV ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS.

SIMULATED RADARS FROM THE HRRX SHOW THIS TRAINING CONTINUING THRU
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE HRRR
HOWEVER...HAS A SHORTER PERIOD OF TRAINING AND ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
HEAVY PRECIP FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
LIEU OF COASTAL ACTIVITY. THE HRRX ALSO SHOWS THE INLAND ACTIVITY
BUT MAINTAINS THE TRAINING THREAT ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF TRAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE TX COAST AND THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCV...BELIEVE THE HRRRX MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby jasons » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:10 pm

Will be keeping a close watch on the Gulf tonight for redevelopment...we may not be done just yet folks.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:24 pm

Some water flowing along Magnolia Creek behind the house after the heavy rains. 2.64" this evening.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Wednesday

Postby Rip76 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:25 pm

jasons wrote:Will be keeping a close watch on the Gulf tonight for redevelopment...we may not be done just yet folks.


You think?
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