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JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Andrew » Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:26 pm

Not much change in my eyes from today's model runs. Maybe a little further north with the heavier rain but overall events are proceeding as expected. Still thinking widespread 3-5 with isolated 8-10 inches (especially South and West of Houston). Now, if a band starts to train, things could change rather quickly. Going to have to radar watch for that over the next couple nights.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:55 am

Seeing some changes overnight from the WPC regarding rainfall potential as well as the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks into Wednesday. Everything has shifted up the Texas Coast where the Highest heavy rainfall chances over the next 5 Days appears to be from the Middle Texas Coast to the Upper Texas Coast. Those yellows represent 10+ inches near Matagorda Bay/Victoria with 7+ inches across a good portion of SE Texas.

p120i(3).gif


The Excessive Rainfall Outlooks have us in a Slight Risk for today with Moderate Risks for Tuesday and Wednesday.
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98ewbg(2).gif

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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby unome » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:46 am

NHC's interactive graphical marine forecast map is the best tool they've come up with imo

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecas ... ed_gom.php
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast/info.php?large

Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
454 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS... The combination of a mid to upper trough over the SW Gulf and surface broad low pressure over the western gulf will continue to result in numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the central and northwestern gulf waters through Tue. A tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and high pressure over the eastern gulf will maintain strong southeast to south winds over the waters W of 90W through Wed. Fresh to locally strong southeast winds will continue over the W central gulf and SW Gulf waters through Thu. High pressure ridging extending from Atlantic to across the northern gulf will dominate the gulf Thu through Fri night as it shifts southward.
Last edited by unome on Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:34 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
441 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-190945-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-
San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
441 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today. Locally heavy rain will be possible and may result in minor
flooding. Tropical funnel clouds may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday through Thursday. Locally heavy rain will be possible and
may result in minor flooding. Tropical funnel clouds may also be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rain totals or any flooding
observed to the National Weather Service.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Andrew » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:20 am

HRRR, while it has been struggling some over the last couple runs, suggests a lot of convection will break out along the coast and over a lot of SE Texas over the next 4-5 hours. Going to have to keep an eye on any training that could setup.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby don » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:06 am

Yes the HRRR is really aggressive today, lets hope this doesn't verify today.The Tech WRF also looks similar.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Andrew » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:15 am

don wrote:Yes the HRRR is really aggressive today, lets hope this doesn't verify today.The Tech WRF also looks similar.


Yea that is why I didn't post the QPF because its way too aggressive, but it can be useful to see the trend and that is additional coverage for much of SE Texas.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:22 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible today-Wednesday

Mid level low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico combined with a surface trough near the TX coast and an extremely moist air mass with PWS of 2.1-2.3 inches will continue to promote waves/bands of rainfall over the next 24-48 hours….some of this rainfall will be heavy at times. Satellite images show a broad mid level circulation over the NW Gulf of Mexico with recent cooling cloud tops (thunderstorms) having formed well to the SE and also near the center of this feature. Satellite derived products show extensive moisture is in place across the NW Gulf of Mexico with PWS of 2.3-2.5 inches continuing to advance toward the TX coast. Thus far bands/waves of showers have been moving fast enough and have not trained over one particular area long enough to cause any problems. Unidirectional and increasing ESE/SE wind flow today and tonight will support increasing banding of fast moving showers and thunderstorms…storm motions should remain in the 15-20mph range…but banding and training could result in quick intense rainfall accumulations even with the fast storm motions.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be likely S of I-10 with 2-4 inches north of I-10. Isolated higher totals of 8 inches or greater will be possible with the most likely area for those higher totals along an SW of a line from Galveston to Wharton. Moisture levels are extremely high and will support rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour in the stronger cells. WPC amounts (see below) have been adjusted higher across portions of SE TX, but there continues to be enough uncertainty as to where and when this heavy rainfall banding may occur.

Overall the current forecasted amounts of rainfall are likely to be handled by the creeks and bayous over the area as long as the rainfall continues to exhibit enough breaks allowing systems to drain. Grounds will slowly saturate as the rainfall totals add up leading to greater amounts of run-off as the event continues. While rises on area creeks and bayou will be possible, the main threat will be street flooding especially in any areas of intense rainfall.

WPC has upgraded portions of the area into a moderate risk for flash flooding Tuesday into Wednesday.

Marine:
Long period swells are currently arriving along the TX coast with tides running about .5-1.0 foot above normal. Total water levels along the Gulf facing beaches are running 2.5-3.2 feet at times of high tides and may result in some minor coastal flooding. Tidal conditions should gradually improve into Tuesday.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:45 am

A bit worrisome to see that mid level circulation moving almost due North toward the SE Texas Coast this morning. We've had a couple of peaks of sun already this early morning and whatever dry air at 700mb seems to have saturated as inbound/outbound aircraft for IAH (Bush) are leaving contrails. HGX is closely monitoring and if need be, Flood Watches will be hoisted sometime today depending on how the QPF plays out.

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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:22 am

Tropical Rains Today
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