JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby ticka1 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:09 pm

that map shows rain all south of us.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:11 pm

Cromagnum wrote:Bring it on. I'm tired of dragging the sprinklers around.


I ran the sprinklers half-time last night just to troll the incoming storms. If I had not run them at all, that risks a complete miss by the sea breeze!
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Rip76 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:12 pm

ticka1 wrote:that map shows rain all south of us.


Yep
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:13 pm

Welcome waves of liquid gold.

Image


The bands are moving WNW from the east, rolling in from Beaumont. More rain bands N if I-10 than expected.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby davidiowx » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:14 pm

ticka1 wrote:that map shows rain all south of us.



It has been (the Euro) shifting those higher totals further north, at a consistent rate, pover the past few days..
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Cromagnum » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:15 pm

Rip76 wrote:
ticka1 wrote:that map shows rain all south of us.


Yep


Yep. If we only get 1-2 inches, this is a huge bust for us. I know South Texas needs the rain more, but would prefer we all got 4-5 inches as opposed to the sharp gradient I'm seeing.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:28 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.AVIATION...
Satellite/radar imagery this afternoon indicates scattered showers
and a few tstms will continue developing over sern TX today on
periphery of larger tropical wave evolving out of the western Gulf
of Mexico. These storms will continue to bring episodic lower
flight conditions across most terminals for the remainder of the
day, with conditions fluctuating between VFR and MVFR for the most
part. However, could expect even brief IFR vsby in the heaviest
rain cores. Will attempt to capture this in the TAFS the best we
can. Otherwise, look for generally deteriorating conditions
through tonight and especially tomorrow as primary
moisture/impacts of tropical wave finally get more entrenched over
sern TX with widespread MVFR and possibly some IFR Monday.

Evans

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Higher precipitable water values have moved onshore and will continue
to spread inland today with increasing shower activity (isolated thunderstorm
will be possible too). With the increase in cloud cover and rain, this
might be the first day in a while with high temperatures mostly under
90 degrees (last time for College Station and Galveston was June 4th,
Houston Intercontinental Airport was May 23rd and Houston Hobby Airport
was May 25th).

Tonight and tomorrow now looks like the beginning focus for possible
locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values approach a very
high 2.50 inches), and this pattern could potentially persist across
parts of Southeast Texas on into Tuesday.

Overnight forecast discussions below describe well how this event might
pan out over the next several days, and not much has been changed in
this thinking for the morning update. 42
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:42 pm

The 17Z HRRR seems to have captures the banding features as wave of heavy showers and storms move ESE to WNW across our Region. The HRRR suggests some totals of generally 1 to 3 inches with some isolated totals a little over 5 inches over the course of the next 18 hours.
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06172018 17Z hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby don » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:46 pm

12z Euro shifted the bulk of heavy rains even further north, now it shows the bulk of heaviest rains in the Coastal Bend region and Southeast Texas....

Image
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby davidiowx » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:48 pm

Was just about to post that don. Getting a little more interesting around here..
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