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JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:53 pm

It poured on the way home going through Oak Ridge and coming into the neighborhood. That little cell just dumped. Unfortunately, by the time I got home, it was bone dry. Missed it by half a mile. Just a few streets away the water is ponding...
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:07 pm

The latest HPC 7-day rainfall map has cut my total in about half too.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby don » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:30 pm

18z GFS is back in line with the Euro showing most of the precipitation in Texas, instead of Louisiana it has some areas in the coastal counties getting 8+ inches fwiw. It's pretty normal for the models to fluctuate from run to run on rain amounts this far out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_29.png
Last edited by don on Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby jasons » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:35 pm

That's one heckuva rainfall gradient.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby TexasBreeze » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:39 pm

Coastal convergence could become a factor where storms focus on the coast early in the morning robbing inflow for inland storms resulting in them being more scattered inland with heating.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:33 pm

At this point, I'll take what I can get rain wise.
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby unome » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:48 pm

down to 0% for 2 day, but still 20% thru 5

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WOAT.shtml

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough. This activity
is forecast to move westward to northwestward over Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, with no
development expected. Environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development if the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:41 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Surface analysis this evening shows an outflow boundary across
north Texas, cold front in the Texas panhandle stretching NW into
central Kansas. Southerly winds remain over the area with the
general synoptic pressure gradient in support. Water vapor imagery
shows upper level low over the NW Gulf with generally northerly
flow aloft. A few isolated showers/storms developed late this
afternoon but are dissipating mainly between KCLL and KUTS.

Going forward we expect mainly VFR/MVFR ceilings with MVFR
ceilings expected for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO in the morning. There will
likely be some scattered stratocumulus farther south over the
Houston terminals and coast. Mesoscale models hint at a few
showers and maybe an isolated storm like today for tomorrow
afternoon. TAFs include VCSH for now but something to monitor
going forwards. Upper low should drop farther south into the Gulf
which may bring back SE flow aloft and maybe an increase in large
scale ascent. Model soundings show weaker capping (not that there
was much capping today) with precipitable water values around 1.7
inches. Environment at least support some convective activity with
diabatic heating.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 407 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers and a stray thunderstorm have managed to develop
this afternoon generally along and north of a Snook to Houston to
Winnie line as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 90s.
Expect this activity to quickly peter out towards sunset as
insolation decreases. Remnants of a decaying thunderstorm complex
over Oklahoma this morning have made it into northeast Texas, but
decreasing surface pressure rises as the associated cold pool
modifies indicate that it will be difficult for the complex to
make it into the region. Keeping low 10-15 PoPs in for the evening
across the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley to account for any
glancing blows, but expect most of the region to be dry overnight
with lows in the 70s to lower 80s.

Speed convergence along the coast may result in a few showers near
the coast by sunrise Wednesday with this activity expected to
spread into the coastal counties and possibly as far north as the
Interstate 10 corridor with the sea breeze during the day.
Otherwise, expect the heat to continue with highs in the upper
80s along the coast to mid 90s inland. Similar conditions are
expected on Thursday with lows in the 70s to low 80s rising into
the upper 80s to mid 90s in the afternoon. Isolated to possibly
scattered showers will also be possible along the sea breeze on
Thursday for the coastal counties.

A tropical wave located near the coast of Nicaragua this afternoon is
expected to continue translating eastward towards the Yucatan
Peninsula and eventually into the Bay of Campeche by the end of
the work week. Tropical cyclone development still remains somewhat
uncertain with this system, especially as it crosses into the Bay
of Campeche. Upper level shear in the southern half of the bay
may be too strong during the weekend to really support additional
strengthening of the tropical wave (which is supported by
solutions from the GFS and European as well as the GFS ensembles).
However, a more northern trajectory could take the wave into a
more favorable environment for development with weaker shear...
but this trajectory is all largely contingent on the placement and
strength of an upper ridge over the northern Gulf. Given the
general consensus for a more southerly/open wave type track have
leaned towards that with the forecast for the weekend. This may
mean that rain chances may need to be lowered a bit for Friday in
subsequent forecasts as if the southerly trajectory trend
continues as it would result in tropical moisture arriving slower.

Deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values over 2 inches)
surge into the area by Saturday which will herald the development
of numerous showers and thunderstorms. The weekend will also need
to be monitored as these buoyant tropical airmasses are notorious
for producing tropical funnel clouds. The presence of this deeper
tropical moisture will also mean that at least brief heavy
downpours will be possible. 12Z guidance today shifted the axis of
what appears to be the highest rain totals closer towards the
Sabine Pass (and away from Galveston Bay), but surface streamlines
show surface confluence closer to Galveston Bay Sunday and
Monday. This may indicate that we see this QPF axis waffle back
and forth over the next few days as guidance gets a better handle
on where the best low level focus may set up. Have decided to not
make too many dramatic changes to the ongoing QPF. While brief
heavy rain remains possible, antecedent conditions across the
region are very dry. The latest Drought Monitor shows areas of
abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions along the coast
(which may be the most likely area to see rain this weekend). As a
result, rain rates will be the primary driver in any flooding
concerns which are difficult to determine almost 5 days out.
Cannot rule out a flooding potential, but cannot speak to its
certainty just yet. Otherwise, expect increasing cloud cover and
rain potential will help moderate high temperatures a few degrees
down into the 80s by the end of the weekend and into the beginning
of next week.

Huffman
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby unome » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:51 am

our panhandle peeps are getting some rain relief

Image
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Re: JUNE 2018:Tracking The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:44 am

A few showers along the coast and offshore this morning. Another hot and humid day across SE TX with only a slight chance of scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm. Invest 91L remains disorganized but still likely to bring tropical moisture with increasing in rain chances this weekend and early next week.
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