JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:47 am

Convection increased overnight in the SW Caribbean Sea as a tropical wave in the Central Caribbean heads West and the monsoonal gyre (broad area of lower pressures) gets going.

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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby Texaspirate11 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:51 am

unome wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:
unome wrote:from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.


That's exactly what I have in mind. If only these systems would cooperate!


7-day qpf gets closer (not that the 7-day is wholly reliable) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

but the 5-day leaves a lot of our state high & dry, not good, especially with temps as high as they've been
:( http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif





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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:42 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Main focus for much of this week will be the late week/weekend forecast as a strong tropical wave moves into the W/NW Gulf of Mexico.

Not expecting much day to day variation of the forecast from a 10-20% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the sezbreeze front through Thursday.

Friday-Monday:
A tropical wave currently moving through the Caribbean Sea will interact with an eastward extension of the central American monsoon trough that has currently drifted northward over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity has increased in this region of the Caribbean Sea overnight, but at this time there does not appear to be any low level circulation. This feature will meander WNW and into the W Caribbean Sea and central America over the next few days and then likely emerge into the southern or central Gulf of Mexico late this week. At this time a majority of the global computer model guidance maintains this feature as a broad tropical wave axis and moves into toward the western and northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

As the tropical wave axis moves into the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday a large mass of deep tropical moisture will surge NW on the eastern flank of the wave toward the TX coast. Rain chances will likely begin to increase early Saturday and continue elevated through the weekend into early next week. Wind and seas will also increase as the unsettled weather and wave axis moves toward the coastline.

Residents are urged to monitor daily tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 and local forecasts.

Regardless of development or not…rain chances will be increasing this weekend. Will start to have a better idea toward the middle of the week on expected amounts of rainfall over the area as forecast models resolve how this feature will unfold over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico, but a prolonged period of wet to very wet weather looks possible.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby don » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:14 am

I am starting to watch for the possibility of heavy rain this weekend into early next week, as it is starting to seem like we could see heavy rain regardless of rather the system develops or not. Both The EURO and GFS show widespread heavy rainfall, just something to watch for now...
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby texoz » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:33 am

don wrote:I am starting to watch for the possibility of heavy rain this weekend into early next week, as it is starting to seem like we could see heavy rain regardless of rather the system develops or not. Both The EURO and GFS show widespread heavy rainfall, just something to watch for now...


I'm wondering if Hurricane Bud (Pacific) is getting factored into rain chances for next week. The 5-day shows it curving northeast into Mexico mainland east of Cabo, which indicates a possible effect on Texas later next week, yes/no?
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby unome » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:46 am

if you read/enjoy surface analysis maps, you can loop OPC's products here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops

it gives you a clear idea of the recent past surface analysis, easy to see the progression when it loops & can be slowed, sped up, zoomed, etc...

for example, "Mexico" view, 5 day loop: https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.p ... s=5&loop=1

their Atlantic Briefing Package has all their graphical products, with the times they update below the graphic: https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/A_brief.shtml

of course for tropical, go to NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
Last edited by unome on Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:41 am

@RyanMaue
Good news from GFS model update just now:
1. The model hurricane in the Gulf has been ditched.
2. Instead, huge tropical moisture surge from Caribbean and Gulf to impact Texas next weekend.
3. Welcome rainfall.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:07 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby stormlover » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:25 pm

Srain, Euro is blah that would be less rain for us
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:31 pm

stormlover wrote:Srain, Euro is blah that would be less rain for us



One could argue that organized or not, this appears to be a big rain maker for Texas and possibly portions of Louisiana. I've checked the total precipitation amounts from the various model schemes throughout this past weekend and even the ECMWF suggests rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. I know wxman57 made mention on S2k this morning that he saw some similarities to Allison 2001, but was not forecasting 30 inches of rainfall like Allison produced. Remember it does not take a big bad Hurricane to bring a lot of heavy tropical rainfall. We will continue to monitor very closely.
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