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JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:29 pm

GFS appears to be leaning to an open wave solution on 18Z until it nears Corpus, with more of the run to reveal. I'd take that.

7 days is a long, long time to find the best answer.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby sambucol » Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:54 pm

DoctorMu wrote:GFS appears to be leaning to an open wave solution on 18Z until it nears Corpus, with more of the run to reveal. I'd take that.

7 days is a long, long time to find the best answer.

And a short amount of time to be ready. If it’s developing in the GOM, it may catch people off guard.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby unome » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:45 pm

while I understand ppl may be nervous in regards to possible tropical rain, it could really be a good thing for parts of TX as it's slipping deeper into drought & anyone here who remembers ashes raining down on their home can't help but be pleased at the thought of beneficial rains helping to erase some of the drought symptoms

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMa ... aspx?South
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby unome » Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:53 pm

from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:25 pm

unome wrote:from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.


That's exactly what I have in mind. If only these systems would cooperate!
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:02 pm

sambucol wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:GFS appears to be leaning to an open wave solution on 18Z until it nears Corpus, with more of the run to reveal. I'd take that.

7 days is a long, long time to find the best answer.

And a short amount of time to be ready. If it’s developing in the GOM, it may catch people off guard.

Probably not. Our NWS Team as well as other County Officials certainly are paying attention. In fact...rumor has it that one local County Sheriff threatened to issue an arrest warrant for the Chief Meteorologist of a SE Texas TV Station for crying "fire" in a theater.... ;)
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby unome » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:12 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
unome wrote:from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.


That's exactly what I have in mind. If only these systems would cooperate!


7-day qpf gets closer (not that the 7-day is wholly reliable) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

but the 5-day leaves a lot of our state high & dry, not good, especially with temps as high as they've been
:( http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby unome » Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:15 pm

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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby Andrew » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:41 pm

GFS has totally dropped formation over the BOC/Western Gulf during the 00z run. This is the most likely outcome as upper-level wind support is not there. Hopefully, we will be in position enough to still receive some rain from the trough axis that crosses the western Carribean. Otherwise, expect relatively dry conditions for much of this week with increases in rain probability this weekend into early next week.
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Re: JUNE 2018 will the rains come?

Postby stormlover » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:33 am

Euro ensembles picking it up, just because gfs dropped it one time doesn’t mean it will be dropped, gfs actually picked it back up on 6z run, interesting week ahead this week
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