Survey - Perception of Probability

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Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:32 pm

We are conducting a survey on the perception of probability. What do terms like "Highly Likely", "Probably", or "We Doubt" mean to you in terms of a percentage chance of occurrence? There are about a dozen questions in the survey. We've been comparing the results from meteorologists and non-mets. The results are interesting so far. Appreciate it if you take the time to complete the quick survey. Use the slider below each question to select the probability of occurrence.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/perceptionsofprob

I'll share the results with you once they're all in.
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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby jasons » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:29 pm

I just did mine. Feel free to check the time stamp, I have nothing to hide. :-)
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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:49 pm

So far, the perceptions by those on social media are matching up fairly closely to those by meteorologists.
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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby tireman4 » Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:03 pm

Took it. Interesting.
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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby wxman57 » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:14 am

tireman4 wrote:Took it. Interesting.


Thanks, I thought it would be interesting, too. I saw someone tweet about a study of those term a few weeks ago, but not with respect to weather terms. We use such terms all the time in our forecasts, with our own interpretations of what they mean for our clients. That's why we wanted so survey both meteorologists and non-meteorologists, to see if our perceptions agree. Initial results indicate we're all pretty close in estimating what each term means, percentage-wise, but that's with not very many responses.
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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby tireman4 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:43 am

You could post this on S2K too
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Re: Survey - Perception of Probability

Postby Texaspirate11 » Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:45 pm

this was hard it reminded me of a really bad math class.
so if your answers are skewed its cuz of me :-)
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